【ACY证券】奥密克戎毒株引发市场抛售，黄金反而失去避险功能？
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">就在上周五，南非出现的一种新冠变种病毒奥密克戎</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">Omicron</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">触动了全球敏感神经。研究显示，该病毒突变程度远超德尔塔毒株，传播能力相对更强。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">世界卫生组织立即将其列为“值得关注的变种病毒</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">Variant
of Interest</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">”。市场关心的是，奥密克戎是否会和德尔塔一样爆发，并再度摧毁正在复苏的全球经济与其背后的供应链。</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-size: large; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-size: large; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">截止至</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size: large; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">28</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-size: large; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">号，英德意澳荷等多个国家均出现数个确诊病例，市场恐慌情绪迅速拉满。上周五，</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size: large; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">VIX</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-size: large; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">恐慌指数单日飙升</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size: large; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">40%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-size: large; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">，引发包括外汇、能源、金属与股市全面崩溃，唯独避险货币日元大幅上涨。全球股指均有不同程度的跌幅，其中欧洲股指最为严峻，跌幅高达</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size: large; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">4.75%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-size: large; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">。美国股市中的十一大板块集体下滑，由能源与金融板块大幅领跌，科技、地产与非必须消费板块紧随其后。整体来看，<b>市场走势反映了情绪面对奥密克戎病毒的担忧，以及对全球经济前景的不看好。</b></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-size: large; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;"><b></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">不过，<b>奥密克戎毒株的危害还有待考证，不管是疫苗下的传播速度还是疾病的严重程度，尚未得到结论，因此情绪面对市场的影响有限。</b>事实上，奥密克戎并非是继德尔塔之后唯一被列为“值得关注”的变种毒株，在此之前，拉姆达与缪毒株分别于</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">6</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">月</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">14</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">日及</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">8</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">月</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">30</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">日被列入该名单当中，但这些变种毒株均未对金融市场造成严重威胁。<b>考虑到各国经济在疫情下对宽松政策有所需求，国债收益率上升，加息预期延后，将会短线令全球股市反弹，而这点已经体现在今日早盘的市场当中。</b></span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""><b></b></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">投资者需要注意，对于本次崩盘，<b>奥密克戎毒株可能只是一个导火索，真正令市场大跌的主因是其过高的估值与潜在的风险。</b>因此中短线来看，这波股市的空头可能仍将延续，在未来的两周内，全球股指或将出现见顶的行情。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202111/29/141701j0gwglzhh09zogg3.jpg<br></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">XAUUSD</span></i><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">一小时图</span></i><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">作为避险商品的黄金，上周五的表现却是不尽如人意，避险持仓转移向了日元。所谓“<b>该涨不涨理应看跌”，目前黄金的空头仍然较为强势。</b>从黄金小时图来看，金价于上周五冲高回落，没能突破关键的</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">1810</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">阻力，伴随情绪面恐慌的消退，金价短线利多不足，空头将再度发力。指标方面，鳄鱼线咬合后开口下行，整体来看，短线交易策略以逢高做空为主。现价上方的阻力主要关注</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">1795</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">与</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">1810</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">两个位置，下方支撑则要看</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">1780</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">与</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">1760</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">两个前低点附近。采用左侧交易，相应扩大盈亏比，可以配合</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">AC</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">柱线泛红，选择入场时机。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">今日关注数据</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">18:00 </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">欧元区</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">11</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">月工业景气指数</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">18:00 </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">欧元区</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">11</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">月消费者信心指数</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">18:00 </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">欧元区</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">11</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">月经济景气指数</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">21:30 </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">加拿大第三季度经常帐</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">23:00 </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">美国</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">11</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">月达拉斯联储商业活动指数</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
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