澳洲财经 发表于 2021-12-2 14:05:43

【ACY证券】鲍威尔抛弃“通胀暂时论”,黄金美元呈现背离再度同跌

<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">本周金融市场最关注的两个话题,一个是南非变种毒株的最新进展,另一个则是美联储的加息进程。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">从全球股市的表现来看,疫情发展对各类大宗商品及相关价值股影响更大(对标道琼斯指数),而加息的进程则决定了科技类成长股的贬值幅度(对标纳斯达克指数)。不管是外汇还是股市交易者均需要注意,短线市场还是以疫情进展为主导。<b>在选择交易商品时,首先需要对其价格的高低有初步判断。</b></span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">就在全球市场紧盯疫情发展之际,猝不及防地受到美联储的“鹰派冲击”。<b>美联储主席鲍威尔在昨日的听证会中首次表示放弃“通胀暂时论”,认为疫情引发的供应链中断将继续推高物价,通胀上行的威胁会随着时间越来越大。</b>这是鲍威尔在连任后的第一次讲话,却已经超乎市场预期。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">ACY</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">证券曾</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">11</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">月</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">23</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">日分析中提到,“卸下重选负担,鲍威尔在货币政策的未来选择上可能更加激进。”果不其然,鲍威尔随后表示,美联储正在考虑提前几个月完成减码</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">QE</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">。</span><span lang="ZH-CN"> </span><span lang="EN-AU"></span></span></p><p><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202112/02/140440bun9otnand3zn3hn.jpg<br></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU">



















</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">XAUUSD</span></i><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">四小时图</span></i><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></i></span></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">在鲍威尔讲话后的一个小时内,美元快速冲高,黄金大幅回落,符合“鹰派”行情。<b>不过随后的表现却开始背离,金价保持了下跌趋势,美元却吐出了大部分涨幅,黄金美元呈现同时下跌,一如</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">11</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">月初的同涨现象。这背后的原因值得交易者关注。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">首先,受到变种病毒威胁,美国资产遭到抛售,美元失去避险功能。与此同时,黄金受到“加息”影响,同样失去避险需求。因此疫情消息面无法提供价格的有效上升推力。此外,观察两种商品此前的价格走势,加息预期早已反应在美元的大涨之中,而黄金却截然相反,加息预期被通胀预期抵消,实际利率没能快速反弹,金价反而始终保持高位。而这样的局势也给予未来美元与黄金同时贬值的空间。考虑到原油价格脱离高点,通胀预期可能降温,<b>短线金价仍有下跌的动力。日内关注回踩</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">1780</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">美元的空单机会,上方阻力在</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">1795</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">,下方支撑看</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">1760</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">附近。</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></b></span></p><p><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202112/02/140508ootunk4olph1h5tl.jpg<br></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
mso-no-proof:yes">

</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">AUDUSD</span></i><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">四小时图</span></i><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></i></span></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">由于市场中普遍存在加息预期,本次鲍威尔讲话可以说是意料之外,情理之中。美元或将利多出尽继续下跌。<b>除了美日货币对的空单避险配置以外,美加做空与澳美做多同样是值得关注的交易机会。</b>从澳美四小时图来看,受到美元冲高回落影响,澳美在前低点关键位置形成长下影线,体现底部支撑。考虑到本周原油存在大涨潜力,同时铁矿石近两日逆势反涨,对澳元存在中短线利好,澳美货币对有日内和中短线做多的机会。日内多单主要关注</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">0.71</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">下方附近的逢低做多,采用左侧交易模式。中短线多单则需要等待澳美突破</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">0.717</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">的颈线位置,底部形态成立,再行入场多单。策略属于右侧交易,需要配合国内取消限产或疫情降温的基本面利好。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""><span style="font-size:16.5px;">&nbsp;</span></span></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">今日关注数据</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></b></span></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">17:00&nbsp; </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">欧元区</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">11</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">月制造业</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">PMI</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">21:15&nbsp; </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">美国</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">11</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">月</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">ADP</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">就业人数</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">22:45&nbsp; </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">美国</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">11</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">月</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">Markit</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">制造业</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">PMI</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">23:00&nbsp; </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">美联储主席鲍威尔与美国财长耶伦出席会议</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">23:00&nbsp; </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">美国当周</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">EIA</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">原油库存</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">03:00&nbsp; </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">美联储公布经济状况褐皮书</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
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查看完整版本: 【ACY证券】鲍威尔抛弃“通胀暂时论”,黄金美元呈现背离再度同跌