【ACY证券】纳斯达克指数面临多重风险，美日货币对仍是最佳对冲
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">自上周五奥密克戎毒株进入公众视野，转眼间已经一周过去了。<b>在这一周的时间里，全球市场可以说完全受到疫情恐惧的情绪面影响，抛售资产规避风险成了本周市场的主旋律。</b>目前奥密克戎病例已经出现在全球</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">20</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">多个国家，其中就包括了美国。 同时，即便拜登要求企业强制接种疫苗，但美国的日新增病例数仍然保持在</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">10</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">万以上，多重疫情风险正在对美国市场持续施压。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""><span style="font-size:16.5px;"></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">目前美国股市面临的风险可不止疫情而已，地缘政治风险也在逐渐逼近。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">美国的债务上限问题仍未得到长期解决方案，而今天便是</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">10</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">月份延期的最后期限。如果国会不提高债务上限，那么联邦政府可能将在</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">12</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">月中旬耗尽资金陷入停摆。然而<b>债务上限已经成为美国政治博弈的筹码，民共两党正在玩一场“胆小鬼游戏”，哪边先退让，哪边便会处于被动。</b>尤其是民主党方面，一旦再度启用预算调解程序将债务问题延期，便会在后续的谈判中背负巨大的政治压力。即便目前延长债务上限的法案已经通过众议院投票，但仍然面临参议院中共和党的阻力。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""><span style="font-size:16.5px;"></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">与此同时，更重要的</span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">2</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">万亿支出法案也在静待参议院投票，两党间的分歧巨大。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">尤其是在面临通胀压力与疫情重燃的条件下，快速通过该法案并非易事，这点在众议院投票过程中便初现端倪。一旦法案受阻，市场可能下调对美国经济前景的预期，从而令美国股市再度下挫。此外，<b>美联储利率决议也将在</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">12</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">15</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">日发布，近期鲍威尔的讲话令市场相信，美国加息可能近在咫尺</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">，同样利空股市，尤其是那些涨势凶猛的高估值科技股票。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202112/03/125853ouwmdmijoupiwa5o.jpg<br></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
mso-no-proof:yes">
</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">NAS100</span></i><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">四小时图</span></i><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">从纳指四小时图来看，受到变种毒株与美联储加息等消息面反复摩擦，指数呈现连续下滑。目前</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">K</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">线已经跌破了关键颈线支撑，头肩顶形态成立，体现技术面空头局势。今日指数还回踩了</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">16000</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">的整数位大关，出现较好的短线做空信号。<b>现价位置离长线趋势支撑还有一段不小的距离，</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">CCI</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">趋势指标高位回落震荡向下，因此交易策略以逢高做空为主。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">入场时机主要关注回踩</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">16000</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">以及突破</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">15800</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">的两个位置，需要相应调整盈亏比例。现价上方的阻力在</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">16400</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">前高附近。短线做空可以配合</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">CCI</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">趋势指标突破</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">-100</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">区域的空头信号，以增加入场胜率。</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202112/03/125916g9euweuu7r616967.jpg<br></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
mso-no-proof:yes">
</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">USDJPY</span></i><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">四小时图</span></i><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">对于长线投资者而言，需要对股市下行风险进行规避或对冲，对冲工具仍然采用做空美日货币对。从美日四小时图来看，日元的避险功能受到市场追捧，即便在美元大幅震荡的过程中，美日货币对仍保持下降趋势。<b>从形态上来看，价格呈现三角形向下收敛，可以等待长实体</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">K</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">线突破</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">112.8</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">的三角形下沿再行入场空单。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">该位置同时还是双顶结构的颈线，一旦向下突破，下冲动力可能会令美日跌至涨平涨中继形态</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">111-112</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">区间。现价上方的阻力主要看</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">113.2</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">的趋势线附近。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">今日关注数据</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">16:30 </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">欧洲央行行长拉加德发表讲话</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">17:00 </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">欧元区</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">11</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">月服务业</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">PMI</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">18:00 </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">欧元区</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">10</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">月零售销售月率</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">21:30 </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">美国</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">11</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">月失业率</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">21:30 </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">美国</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">11</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">月非农就业人口</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">22:45 </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">美国</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">11</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">月</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">Markit</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">服务业</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">PMI</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
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