【ACY证券】风险投资情绪趋于理性，利率决议能否触发澳元大涨？
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">从上周五的全球股市表现来看，此前遭受变种病毒重创的价值股纷纷触底，标普十一大板块中的工业、公共事业与必需消费品板块接连开始反弹。这说明由奥密克戎毒株引发的恐慌情绪逐渐撤离市场，同时带走的还有资本市场对元宇宙、新能源与加密货币的狂热风险偏好。年底结算将近，投资者情绪趋于理性。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">ACY</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">证券认为，<b>纳指所代表的科技板块仍有抛售空间，而由此产生的闲置风险配置会持续流入大宗商品与价值板块</b>，例如美国道琼斯指数等。外汇市场同样会受到影响，交易者需要相应策略。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">虽然目前能源与金属类大宗商品价格还未反弹，不过相关企业的股价却已经开始大幅转涨，其中便囊括了澳洲的煤炭、原油与矿业公司。<b>由于商品价格体现短线供需，而相关股价则反映长线预期，因此股价的变化往往能够代表商品价格的未来方向。</b>大宗商品的逢低建仓是近期值得关注的交易机会。同时对于外汇市场而言，<b>大宗商品的转强将逐步改变目前的避险对冲策略，中线利好澳元与加元等商品货币。</b></span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""><b></b></span></span></p><p><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202112/06/125615qhh0z2hwuh2vxorh.jpg<br></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU">
</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">GBPCAD</span></i><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">一小时图</span></i><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">伴随油价触底，加元呈现筑底迹象。从镑加小时图来看，即便油价近期表现不佳，</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">K</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">线仍然处在大幅震荡阶段，出现了头部结构。随着加元开始转强，镑加一旦跌破</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">1.695</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">的颈线位置，头肩顶形态成立，便是不错的跟随空单机会。现价下方支撑在</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">1.685</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">附近，而上方阻力则要看</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">1.7</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">整数位大关。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">明日亚盘上午，澳洲联储即将发布利率决议，由于此前公布的失业率暴涨，通胀率降温，市场普遍认为本次利率决议仍将保持宽松。而这样的普遍预期已经反映在市价当中，在上一轮决议公布后，澳元便开启了单边下跌局势，变种病毒的出现更是为空头再添助力。因此<b>明日即便公布了宽松决议，澳元也可能出现“利空出尽”的短线上涨现象。</b></span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202112/06/125633m9omyyoxls0jo69y.jpg<br></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU">
</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">AUDUSD</span></i><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">四小时图</span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">从澳美四小时图来看，此前的单边空头局势异常明显，不过现价正处在关键的</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">0.7</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">前低点整数位大关。<b>该位置同时受到下降通道下沿支撑，</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">RSI</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">相对强弱指标形成标准背离形态，技术面存在超跌反弹的机会。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">配合上明日的利率决议，一旦有任何减码</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">QE</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">或加息的言论，便是消息面最大的利好，存在</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">0.7</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">位置的逢低做多，上方阻力可以看</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">0.72</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">附近。不过利率决议更有可能保持宽松，这或将触发澳元极短线跌破</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">0.7</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">关口。日内交易可以关注</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">0.69</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">以及</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">0.7</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">两个位置的反弹入场机会，可以做分批入场，并将</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">0.71</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">作为目标点位的参考。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">今日关注数据</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">17:30 </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">欧元区</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">12</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">月</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">Sentix</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">投资者信心指数</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">本文内容由第三方提供。</span><span lang="ZH" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">ACY</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">证券对文中内容的准确性和完整性，不做任何声明或保证；由第三方的建议，预测或其他信息导致了投资损失，</span><span lang="ZH" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">ACY</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">证券不承担任何责任。本文内容不构成任何投资建议，与个人投资目标，财务状况或需求无关。如有任何疑问，请您咨询独立专业的财务或税务的意见。</span><span lang="ZH" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">ACY Securities Pty Ltd</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">（</span><span lang="ZH" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">AFSL 403863</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">）受澳大利亚证券投资委员会授权和监管。</span><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
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