【ACY证券】消息面由空转多，情绪面恐慌削弱，原油价格连续突破
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-size: large; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">自上周</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size: large; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">OPEC</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-size: large; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">组织决定维持原油增产后，油价便利空出尽触底反弹，开启了震荡上涨。转眼间，油价已经脱离低位大涨了</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size: large; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">10%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-size: large; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">。要理解原油近期的反弹，首先要明白油价此前的重挫。受到奥密克戎时间线的主要影响，原油随全球股市一同三连跳。因此驱动油价下跌的元凶是变种病毒带来的恐慌性抛售，与实际供需关联不大。<b>随着对奥密克戎病毒的了解深入，恐慌情绪逐步消退，贪婪需求随之回归，令原油与金属铜价格开始反弹。</b>不仅如此，原油近期消息面利多不断，为油价提供强势上升推力。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-size: large; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">昨日，<b>美国传染病专家福奇表示，奥密克戎的危险性“可能”低于德尔塔。</b>这一观点与观察到的现象吻合，目前奥密克戎病例主要体现轻微或无症状。虽然现在就下定论还为时过早，但仍然给金融市场吃了一颗定心丸，为油价的反弹提供助力。在原油供应方面，正如</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">ACY</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">证券此前判断，<b>伊朗的强势态度令伊核谈判再度陷入僵局</b>，<b>令原油空头失望不已。与此同时，两大产油大国纷纷上调油价预期。</b>沙特方面上调亚洲与美国的原油售价，而伊拉克方面表示，会积极控制能源市场，预计油价将达到每桶</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">75</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">美元以上。整体来看，原油消息面已经完全扭转了上周的空头局势，本周的油价以看涨为主。</span></span></p><p><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202112/07/133841s03fpo43ouo4voyf.jpg<br></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU">
</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">USWTI</span></i><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">四小时图</span></i><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">从</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">WTI</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">原油四小时图来看，伴随近日的上涨，油价突破了关键的</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">69</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">颈线位置。头肩底反转形态成立，底部支撑转强。<b>考虑到上周恐慌性抛售引发的超跌现象，令油价脱离下降通道，这次反弹还有充足的空间。</b>指标方面，</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">RVI</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">相对活力指标纠结上扬，突破零线后站稳，鳄鱼线咬合后再度开口上行，体现空头局势的逐渐扭转。<b>配合上消息面整体转强，交易策略以逢低做多为主，关注</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">69</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">位置的回踩入场机会。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">现价下方支撑要看</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">66</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">的前低点附近，上方阻力则要看</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">72.5</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">的前高点，以及再上方</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">74</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">的下降趋势线位置。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202112/07/133906owrr36wnyy68u8ug.jpg<br></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU">
</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">COPPER</span></i><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">一小时图</span></i><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">本周金属铜的价格同样开始反弹。从铜价小时图来看，</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">9350</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">位置多次支撑了铜价，体现底部多头的强支撑。不过从形态上来看，</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">K</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">线还未能形成反转，整体局势呈现大幅震荡，技术面还未出现趋势转强信号。<b>因此交易策略采用等待回调后做多为主。现价下方的支撑可以看</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">9450</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">和</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">9350</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">区间附近，而上方的阻力在前高点</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">9560</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">和</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">9700</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">两个位置。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">入场时机可以配合随机指标的超卖区金叉形态，增加入场胜率。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
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