【ACY证券】警惕全球股市“死猫反弹”，控制地缘政治风险敞口
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">最近</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">ACY</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">证券反复强调，不管是全球股市投资者还是外汇与黄金交易者，都需要关注本周美国的政策方面的变动，包括财政与货币政策，交易策略需要相应作出调整。<b>连续数月的超高通胀数据不仅统一了市场的态度，还在逐渐扭转美国的政治局势。</b>在最近的一份密西根大学消费者信心报告中显示，超过四分之三的被调查者认为，美国面临的最大问题是高通胀，而非失业。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">WTI</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">原油价格的暴涨导致拜登的支持率不断下降。据最近的民调统计，拜登目前的支持率仅为</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">36.3%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">，远低于刚上任时期。即便白宫政府已经连翻对油价实施控制，但由于物价的粘滞性，想要快速解决通胀问题并非易事。<b>这也将迫使美国在未来财政与货币政策的选择上作出妥协，而局势的变化将给予短线交易者更多的机会。</b></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;"><b></b></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">本周三的美联储利率决议无疑是兵家必争之地。从上周五通胀引发的市场表现来看，股票与外汇商品的价格动力较为充足，多空双方围绕加息预期互相博弈。<b>美联储主席鲍威尔反复“变脸”更是放大了货币政策的不确定性，预计本周市场的价格波动可能再次加剧。</b>不仅如此，拜登的支出法案也受到内部阻力，面临明年的中期选举，民主党内部同样担心支出法案的通过会让其背负巨大的政治压力。这可能导致经历数月讨论的支出法案最终流产，从而重创资本市场的信心，并再度拉高避险商品的需求。<b>考虑到近期各类商品的价格表现，本周可能出现美元、黄金以及全球股市同时下跌的行情，如何规避风险仍然是最关键的问题。</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></b></span></p><p><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202112/13/135235qrcdra5l8ddqrb68.jpg<br></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU">
</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">US2000</span></i><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">日线图</span></i><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">在美国股指中，近期表现最不好的便是中小盘指数罗素</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">2000</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">。从罗素</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">2000</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">指数日线图来看，经历了一个月的回调，指数暂时受到</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">2100</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">水平线支撑。该位置正是长期头部的颈线，将提供不小的支撑力量。从形态上来看，</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">K</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">线形成箱体震荡，震荡上沿在</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">2340</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">附近，下沿在</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">2100</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">关口。<b>考虑到美联储的加息进程对于高估值中小盘股有着巨大影响，因此本周的交易策略以逢高做空为主。</b>入场时机主要关注前高点</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">2270</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">和箱体上沿</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">2340</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">两个位置的做空机会，可以采用倒金字塔形式进行分批入场。<b>中短线交易者则需要关注下穿</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">2100</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">关口的顺势做空机会</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">，可以配合</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">CCI</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">趋势指标进入</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">-100</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">区域的利空信号，增加入场胜率。<b>对于美国个股的长线投资者而言，同样可以通过做空指数，以达到风险对冲的目的，降低短期的风险敞口。</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></b></span></p>
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