【ACY证券】美联储将市场来回拉扯，多空激烈碰撞何去何从？
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">昨日的美联储利率决议发生了惊天反转，决议内容如预期鹰派，导致美股下滑美元大涨。然而鲍威尔随后却发表了鸽派言论，瞬间向市场破了一盆冷水，可谓是一拉一踩配合默契。不过就此判断美联储不会加息则太过武断，“还未考虑”和“不加息”在态度上有着天壤之别。</span><b style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">外汇与股市的短线交易者需要理解这波反向操作背后的原因，交易策略需要作相应调整。</b></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202112/16/134057hvvpnbaonl9i18yn.jpg<br></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="mso-no-proof:yes">
</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">美联储</span></i><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">12</span></i><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">月利率点阵图</span></i><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">首先从决议中的利率点阵图来看，美联储官员对未来加息的预期正在快速与市场贴近。多数官员认为明年美国联邦利率需要提高至</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">0.75%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">以上，也就是明年将有三次加息。这样的态度正和市场的胃口，导致美股与黄金瞬间大跌。然而，鲍威尔随后便进行了时长</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">8</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">分钟的演讲，讲话中再度重申，加息需要充分就业的支持，目前还没有加息计划，这无疑令市场季度失望。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">不过细看鲍威尔对媒体的回复，其中两个地方有重大改变。首先，<b>鲍威尔认为资产估值普遍偏高，简单来说就是承认股市与房市中存在泡沫</b>，并表示股市与房价的上涨可能是导致劳动参与率低迷的原因之一。这一点和此前的态度截然不同。此外他还表示，<b>虽然目前美国就业市场正在快速恢复，但通胀上升可能会在未来抑制就业市场。</b>如果通胀与就业目标发生冲突，美联储可能会在实现充分就业之前便开始加息。综上所述，美联储加息的两大关键阻力，“通胀暂时论”与“低迷就业市场”正在相继土崩瓦解，整个讲话内容“似鸽实鹰”。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext"></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">但为什么昨日的金融市场仍呈现鸽派解读？主要原因在于主力机构的对冲避险配置。<b>由于本次利率决议的影响过大，而且有很大的不确定性，因此多数机构纷纷提前布局风险对冲。</b>当决议靴子落地后，对冲资金撤离，便导致市场的压缩反弹。美联储不明朗的态度更是为市场增添了一份反弹助力。短线来看，多空双方争斗加剧，市场波动仍将扩大。考虑到鲍威尔对风险资产泡沫的态度以及纳斯达克指数多次冲高回落，纳指仍然是市场中较好的做空策略。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202112/16/134057hvvpnbaonl9i18yn.jpg<br></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin-bottom:0in;text-align:center;
line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">NAS100</span></i><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">日线图</span></i></span><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">从纳指小时图来看，指数曾在</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">16400</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">位置多次受阻，上一轮利率决议的利好同样未能令指数突破该阻力线。考虑到美联储似鸽实鹰的态度，该水平线有着不错的空单机会。不过<b>短线交易者需要注意，目前市场的情绪面波动风险较高，一旦长实体</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">K</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">线突破该位置，便需要考虑及时离场</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">。现价下方的支撑在</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">16130</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">、</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">15950</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">以及</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">15750</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">附近，可以进行分批出场。美国股市中其他做空的选择还有</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">ARKK</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">、特斯拉与英伟达等。这些股票价格均出现头部结构，关注上方的空头压力。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">今日关注数据</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">18:00<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;
mso-color-alt:windowtext">欧元区</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">10</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">月季调后贸易帐</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">20:00<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;
mso-color-alt:windowtext">英国央行发布利率决议</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">20:45<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;
mso-color-alt:windowtext">欧洲央行发布利率决议</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">21:30<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;
mso-color-alt:windowtext">加拿大</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">10</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">月批发销售月率</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">21:30<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;
mso-color-alt:windowtext">美国当周初请失业金人数</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">21:30<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;
mso-color-alt:windowtext">欧洲央行行长拉加德召开新闻发布会</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Times New Roman"">联系我们</span></b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Times New Roman"">电话：</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">167 4049 5509</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">（中国）</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Times New Roman""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Times New Roman""><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>1300 729 171</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Times New Roman"">（澳大利亚）</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Times New Roman"">QQ</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">：</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">8000
97651</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Times New Roman"">微信：</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">acyau2011</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Times New Roman"">官网：</span><span lang="EN-AU"><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">https://www.acycn.com</span></span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Times New Roman""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Times New Roman"">邮箱：</span><span lang="EN-AU"><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">[email protected]</span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Times New Roman""><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Times New Roman""></span></p><p><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202112/16/134213irrna6sey165sijp.gif<br></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext;mso-no-proof:yes">
</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><b><span lang="ZH" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-ansi-language:ZH;
mso-fareast-language:ZH"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-ansi-language:ZH">免责声明：</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif"></span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:black;
mso-color-alt:windowtext;mso-ansi-language:ZH">本文内容由第三方提供。</span><span lang="ZH" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext;
mso-ansi-language:ZH;mso-fareast-language:ZH">ACY</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext;
mso-ansi-language:ZH">证券对文中内容的准确性和完整性，不做任何声明或保证；由第三方的建议，预测或其他信息导致了投资损失，</span><span lang="ZH" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:black;mso-color-alt:
windowtext;mso-ansi-language:ZH;mso-fareast-language:ZH">ACY</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:black;
mso-color-alt:windowtext;mso-ansi-language:ZH">证券不承担任何责任。本文内容不构成任何投资建议，与个人投资目标，财务状况或需求无关。如有任何疑问，请您咨询独立专业的财务或税务的意见。</span><span lang="ZH" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:black;mso-color-alt:
windowtext;mso-ansi-language:ZH;mso-fareast-language:ZH">ACY Securities Pty Ltd</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:black;
mso-color-alt:windowtext;mso-ansi-language:ZH">（</span><span lang="ZH" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext;
mso-ansi-language:ZH;mso-fareast-language:ZH">AFSL 403863</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:black;
mso-color-alt:windowtext;mso-ansi-language:ZH">）受澳大利亚证券投资委员会授权和监管。</span><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></p>
页:
[1]