【ACY证券】欧洲人无法承担天价电费，天然气供需回暖价格反弹
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">自疫情开始以来，通货膨胀日益严重，全球股市稳定上涨，各种大宗商品的价格也是水涨船高。要说其中涨价最凶的，大家可能会想到黄金、</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">WTI</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">原油、铁矿石亦或是天然气。但其实<b>纵观全球市场，欧洲电力价格独占鳌头，涨幅无出其右者。随着圣诞节的临近，欧洲人也将收获一张天价电费单。</b></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;"><b></b></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">在周一的现货拍卖上，几乎所有欧洲地区的电力均价都已经达到</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">300</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">欧元</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">/</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">兆瓦时以上，尤其是法国与瑞士的均价更是突破了</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">400</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">欧元</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">/</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">兆瓦时。要知道，</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">2019</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">年欧洲的电力均价只有</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">25-50</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">欧元</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">/</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">兆瓦时，相当于两年内涨价了十几倍。而且<b>目前的电价并未停止上涨，法国</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">1</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">月份电力期货价格高达</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">590</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">欧元，</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">2</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">月份合约价更是接近</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">650</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">欧元。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">再任由电价这么疯涨上去，到明年圣诞节，烤火鸡所耗的电费“可能”比火鸡本身还贵。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">欧洲电价飞涨背后的原因是多方面的。首先是今年寒冷的天气令欧洲能源库存严重不足，随着气温不断降低，民众对电力与天然气的必要需求也在快速扩大。然而供应端也是问题不断。受到风力减弱与核电中断等方面的影响，欧洲的电力输出大幅下降。<b>供需的严重错位令电价扶摇直上，同时也进一步增加了欧洲对天然气的依赖。</b>短期内天然气的需求量增加，同时由于俄罗斯方面迟迟没能提高供应速度，预计天然气价格将短线触底反弹。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202112/21/122743p45s59jd15ns9skx.jpg<br></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="mso-no-proof:yes">
</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">GAS</span></i><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">四小时图</span></i><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">从天然气四小时图来看，价格从</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">10</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">月份开始体现颓势，这个时间节点正是俄罗斯天然气管道“北溪</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">2</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">号”全面完工的时候。随后受到奥密克戎病毒影响，天然气价格大幅降低，跌破了头部颈线支撑。不过<b>近期伴随病毒恐慌缓解以及“北溪</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">2</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">号”审批停滞，天然气的价格在</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">3.6-4</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">区间往复震荡，体现了下方的多头支撑。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">指标方面，鳄鱼线咬合，方向未定；</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">AO</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">柱线靠近零线收敛，</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">AC</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">柱线空头力量收缩；整体来看，价格正处在整理阶段，多头逐渐释放力量，存在筑底反弹的可能。因此天然气交易策略以短线突破跟随为主，一旦长实体上穿</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">4</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">的整数位关口，鳄鱼线开口上行，便是不多的多单入场时机。现价上方的阻力主要看</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">4.75</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">头部颈线位置，下方支撑要看</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">3.6</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">的震荡下沿。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">今日关注数据</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
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