【ACY证券】日元与美债遭避险市场抛弃，空头或将持续提供压力
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">近期市场中的避险选择发生了明显的变化。回顾过去一个月的行情，在奥密克戎病毒冲击市场后，避险需求激增，但普遍选择的商品并非是黄金，而是日元与美国国债。<b>随着最近疫情恐慌情绪的消退，市场的避险选择也开始转变。</b></span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""><b></b></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">本周的美国国债遭到大面积抛售，收益率连续四天大涨；日元也是渐露颓势，一改此前的强势，开始逐步贬值。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">反而黄金受到追捧，分析黄金价格走势能够发现，金价与股市呈现同向波动，其背后的关键驱动便是美国的通货膨胀。避险需求的改变体现的是市场关注点的转移，这样的趋势预计会持续下去，日元会继续下跌，而美债将回归贬值。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202112/24/133936h0mwft02tljdhwea.jpg<br></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
mso-no-proof:yes">
</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:normal"><i>GBPJPY四小时图</i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">从镑日四小时图来看，本周的磅日异常强势，汇率呈现连续突破，分别在</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">151</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">和</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">152.5</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">两个关键位置暂时企稳后，形成突破大涨的行情。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">K</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">线形成明显的双底反转形态，存在突破跟随的机会。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">200</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">均线出现拐点，还未开启上行，同时磅日触及到关键阻力</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">153.5</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">位置，</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">AC</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">柱线呈现小幅度贝利。<b>技术面短时间内承受一定的回调压力，但整体上升趋势未变。因此短线交易策略以逢低做多为主，多单入场可以关注</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">152.5</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">底部颈线位置</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">。现价上方的阻力在</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:DengXian;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">154.3</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">附近，下方支撑则要看</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">151</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">附近位置。入场时机可以配合</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">AC</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">柱在线穿零线的转强信号。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202112/24/133957ujrri4frqaze6wxu.jpg<br></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
mso-no-proof:yes">
</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:normal"><i>TLT一小时图</i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">从美国国债市场近期的表现来看，疫情往往会引发长端避险需求，而通胀则会提高短端避险配置。考虑到近期疫情恐慌降低，长段国债价格将继续下降。从对标</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">20</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">年以上美国国债的指数</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">TLT</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">小时图来看，指数本周形成了明显的头部形态，体现长端国债需求快速下滑。考虑到风险资产价格普遍触底反弹，指数价格短线可能会加速下滑。<b>指数目前真该测试</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">148.4</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">的关键支撑效果，一旦下穿颈线，便是跟随做空的机会。短线空单入场需要关注</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">147.5</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">的突破机会。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">现价上方阻力在</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:DengXian;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">150</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">关口，下方支撑则要看</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">144.5</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">前低点位置。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">今日关注资料</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">无重要经济资料</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
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"Times New Roman"">电话：</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
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"Times New Roman""><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>1300 729 171</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Times New Roman"">（澳大利亚）</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
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"Times New Roman"">QQ</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">：</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">8000
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Times New Roman"">微信：</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">acyau2011</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Times New Roman"">官网：</span><span lang="EN-AU"><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">https://www.acycn.com</span></span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Times New Roman"">邮箱：</span><span lang="EN-AU"><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">[email protected]</span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"></span></p><p><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202112/24/134020qwtt4tuyh244m1cj.gif<br></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal"><b><span lang="ZH" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-ansi-language:ZH;
mso-fareast-language:ZH"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-ansi-language:ZH">免责声明：</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif"></span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:black;
mso-color-alt:windowtext;mso-ansi-language:ZH">本文内容由第三方提供。</span><span lang="ZH" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext;
mso-ansi-language:ZH;mso-fareast-language:ZH">ACY</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext;
mso-ansi-language:ZH">证券对文中内容的准确性和完整性，不做任何声明或保证；由第三方的建议，预测或其他信息导致了投资损失，</span><span lang="ZH" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:black;mso-color-alt:
windowtext;mso-ansi-language:ZH;mso-fareast-language:ZH">ACY</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:black;
mso-color-alt:windowtext;mso-ansi-language:ZH">证券不承担任何责任。本文内容不构成任何投资建议，与个人投资目标，财务状况或需求无关。如有任何疑问，请您咨询独立专业的财务或税务的意见。</span><span lang="ZH" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:black;mso-color-alt:
windowtext;mso-ansi-language:ZH;mso-fareast-language:ZH">ACY Securities Pty Ltd</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:black;
mso-color-alt:windowtext;mso-ansi-language:ZH">（</span><span lang="ZH" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext;
mso-ansi-language:ZH;mso-fareast-language:ZH">AFSL 403863</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;color:black;
mso-color-alt:windowtext;mso-ansi-language:ZH">）受澳大利亚证券投资委员会授权和监管。</span><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></i></p>
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