【ACY证券】决定性非农数据今晚来袭，欧洲通胀率也来掺上一脚
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="">最近金融市场最常被提及的关键词必然是美联储和加息，围绕美国的货币政策，市场正在经历大幅波动。与此相关的任何风吹草动都会引发行情剧变，而今晚正是关键的时刻。即将发布的美国的非农就业人口不必多说，是最重要的就业数据之一。<b style="">目前美联储加息的最大阻碍便是就业市场的低迷，今晚的非农与失业数据将直接影响美联储的政策选择。</b>尤其考虑到近期美国疫情的爆发，就业情况存在很大的不确定性，因此今晚的行情可并不简单。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style=""></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="mso-no-proof:yes">
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<p><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202201/07/135831pcqakcemh3ll3q2l.jpg<br></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:normal"><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="">美国近一年的非农历史资料</span></i><i><span lang="EN-AU" style=""></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="">从非农历史数据表现来看，美国的就业恢复速度自去年下半年开始便逐渐下降，由于疫情一直反反复复，非农数据也曾多次远低于预期。上个月的数据更是只有预期值的一半不到，这也是为什么在上一轮利率决议中，鲍威尔力排众议，没有提出加息计划。<b>今晚非农的预期值是</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="">40</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="">万，如果报得实际数值仍然只有</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="">20</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="">万，那么很可能出发美元的大幅贬值。</span></b><span lang="EN-AU" style=""></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: large;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: large;">今晚要公布的资料又何止是美国非农，欧洲方面同样将发布通胀资料与各类信心指数。尤其是</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: large;">CPI</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: large;">通胀率较为关键，由于近期欧洲能源价格暴涨，昨日公布</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: large;">PPI</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: large;">通胀率高达</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: large;">23.7%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: large;">，今晚的</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: large;">CPI</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: large;">数据同样可能远超预期的</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: large;">5.1%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: large;">。<b>欧元可能短线内一反颓势大举反攻，同样是短线外汇交易者不错的机会。</b></span></p>
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<p><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202201/07/135907hp6oui3pz0z86jp6.jpg<br></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:normal"><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="">EURUSD</span></i><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="">四小时图</span></i><i><span lang="EN-AU" style=""></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="">从欧美四小时图来看，虽然近期美联储方面消息不断，但欧美货币对的走势却较为平静。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="">K</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="">线稳定在</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="">1.122-1.137</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="">区间内往复震荡，这正说明了美元的基本面升值动力有所不足。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="">200</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="">均线已然出现拐点；鳄鱼线咬合正在休息，还未决定方向；</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="">AO</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="">柱线处在零线下方，有形成双底背离的可能。<b>整体来看，欧美累积了较强的动力，一旦今晚非农数据低于预期，同时欧洲</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="">CPI</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="">数据高于预期，便是不错的顺势做多机会。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="">现价下方的支撑主要看</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="">1.1275</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="">的水平线支撑，再下方的</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="">1.122</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="">位置可以作为严格止损的参考。日内阻力在</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="">1.37</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="">附近，再上方的阻力则要看</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="">1.145</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="">和</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="">1.16</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="">两个位置。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style=""></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;">今日关注资料</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style=""></span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span lang="EN-AU" style="color: black;">18:00<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;">欧元区</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="color: black;">12</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;">月</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="color: black;">CPI</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;">年率</span><span lang="EN-AU" style=""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span lang="EN-AU" style="color: black;">18:00<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;">欧元区</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="color: black;">12</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;">月工业景气指数</span><span lang="EN-AU" style=""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span lang="EN-AU" style="color: black;">18:00<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;">欧元区</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="color: black;">12</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;">月消费者信心指数</span><span lang="EN-AU" style=""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span lang="EN-AU" style="color: black;">18:00<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;">欧元区</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="color: black;">12</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;">月经济景气指数</span><span lang="EN-AU" style=""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span lang="EN-AU" style="color: black;">21:30<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;">美国</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="color: black;">12</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;">月失业率</span><span lang="EN-AU" style=""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span lang="EN-AU" style="color: black;">21:30<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;">美国</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="color: black;">12</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: black;">月非农就业人口</span><span lang="EN-AU" style=""></span></span></p>
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