【ACY证券】原油看涨局势延续至2022，供不应求的问题难以缓解
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-hansi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">随着全球对奥密克戎病毒的紧张情绪有所缓解，市场的目光也再度转向能源资产。毫无疑问，原油、煤炭与天然气的价格上涨提高了世界各地尤其是欧美国家的通胀压力。<b>本周三即将发布美国的通胀数据，市场的预期值已经高达</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">7%</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
mso-hansi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
mso-hansi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">美国的平均薪资同样以年化</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">10%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-hansi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">的幅度快速上涨，通胀的螺旋上升结构已然成型。<b>为了控制通胀，白宫政府也是想方设法降低能源价格，然而事实证明，能源商品仍然保持着强有力的多头局势。</b></span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="mso-no-proof:yes">
</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-fareast-font-family:DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202201/10/131914ju1u0vxjkqec7k6f.jpg<br></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align: center; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
mso-hansi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">美国原油每周库存变动历史数据</span></i><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
mso-fareast-language:ZH-TW">首先从原油方面来看，即便美国与多个国家合作持续释放战略库存，即便奥密克戎病毒引发需求担忧，即便</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">OPEC</span><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
mso-fareast-language:ZH-TW">组织坚持原定增产计划，仍没能影响油价的涨势。这背后主要受到两方面影响。首先对大宗商品而言，供需关系必然对价格有着关键影响。经过数周的观察，市场发现奥密克戎并未影响到原油的消耗量。<b>反而自去年</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">12</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">月起，美国的原油库存便在连续下滑。要知道，这还是在战略库存不断释放的前提下，说明原油的需求量仍有着充分的保证。</span></b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">与此同时，供应端却出了问题。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">OPEC</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">组织虽然维持了增产计划，但部分成员国的产能已接近饱和，对增产是有心无力。美国方面更不用说，在过去一年里，境内的页岩油厂商以及投资者已经对传统能源行业失去信心，扩产力度严重不足，导致页岩油产量持续低迷。因此，<b>能源市场的供不应求短时间内难以解决。与此同时，新能源板块狂热的消退，为传统能源行业带来新的生机，预计能源及相关股票将保持多头局势。</b></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="mso-no-proof:yes"><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-fareast-font-family:PMingLiU;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-fareast-language:ZH-TW"></span></span><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202201/10/131944rmlh39df28nglndv.jpg<br></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">USWTI</span></i><i><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
mso-fareast-language:ZH-TW">一小时图</span></i><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-font-family:
PMingLiU;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
mso-fareast-language:ZH-TW"></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
mso-fareast-language:ZH-TW">从原油小时图来看，最近</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">3</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">周的油价表现非常出色，</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">K</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">线呈现涨平涨的多头形态。在此前震荡箱体行情中，多次利空消息面都没有令油价转向。指标方面来看，</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">200</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">均线保持向上，</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">RSI</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">相对强弱指标呈现多重顶背离，随机指标目前还处在超卖区域，油价短线存在回调压力。<b>整体来看，交易策略以等待回调后再行入场多单为主，可以配合随机指标形成金叉的多头信号。</b>现价下方的关键支撑在</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">76.7</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">的前低点附近。再下方的支撑则要看</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">75</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">的箱体下沿附近。而上方的阻力则要看</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">80</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">的整数位关口。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
PMingLiU;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:PMingLiU;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-fareast-language:ZH-TW"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
mso-hansi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">今日关注资料</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">18:00<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;
mso-color-alt:windowtext">欧元区</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">11</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">月失业率</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">23:00<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;
mso-color-alt:windowtext">美国</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">11</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">月批发销售月率</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></p>
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