【ACY证券】鲍威尔听证会就在今晚，外汇市场屏息以待
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: DengXian;">要说近期市场中最受瞩目的人物，那么必然要属美联储主席鲍威尔无疑。而<b>今晚正是鲍威尔的的连任听证会，关系到其是否能够连任主席职位。</b>不过市场对听证会结果并不关心，由于拜登早在</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">11</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: DengXian;">月份便做出了连任提名，鲍威尔的连任几乎是板上钉钉的。<b>市场真正关心的还是鲍威尔在听证会中表露的态度。</b></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;
mso-fareast-language:ZH-TW">从</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:
"Arial",sans-serif">11</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;
mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:
Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial">月和</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">12</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial">月的官员态度变化与利率决议内容能够发现，多数美联储官员已经相当鹰派，年内加息已经达成共识，关键就在于何时开始。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial">然而鲍威尔的态度却是一直模棱两可。在上一轮决议后的讲话中，鲍威尔始终表示美联储还没有开始讨论加息的计划，这也导致黄金随之转涨，美元同时下滑。鲍威尔对金融市场的影响力可见一斑。目前金融机构的加息预期普遍较为激进，包括摩根大通、高盛等机构均预测</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">3</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial">月份开始加息，年内会加息四次。<b>如果鲍威尔的讲话和上次一样偏向鸽派，将短时间内延后加息预期，金融市场也会随之大幅波动。</b></span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial">今日早间披露了鲍威尔证词的讲稿，其中提到美国的劳动力市场强劲，美联储会通过工具来支持经济与就业，并阻止高通胀的蔓延。<b>看似是鹰派的态度，但实际从早盘表现来看，黄金继续上涨，美元保持颓势。</b>讲稿中的内容和上次讲话一般无二。如果今晚听证会中，鲍威尔没有提及实际的加息计划，那么金融市场可能将延续鸽派立场。尤其是美元可能强化贬值动力。</span></span></p><p><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202201/11/135452mqz6qpz3zjmpa27g.jpg<br></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-no-proof:yes">
</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">GBPUSD</span></i><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial">一小时图</span></i><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial">与美元的颓势相反，英镑近期的表现极佳。从镑美小时图来看，</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">200</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial">均线向上，双重趋势线提供强支撑，呈现稳定的震荡上行趋势。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">K</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial">线连续两次在</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">1.36</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial">关口受阻，形态上体现收敛三角形。因此，</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">1.36</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial">位置的突破跟随便是镑美短线交易的关键机会。<b>一旦镑美汇率长实体上穿</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">1.36</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial">关口，便是跟随做多的机会，可以配合动量指标上穿零线的多头信号。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial">不过考虑到今晚市场的波动性较大，日内交易还是以逢低做多为主。入场时机可以等待随机指标在超卖区形成金叉形态，以增加入场的胜率。现价下方的关键支撑主要看两条趋势线，点位在</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">1.356</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial">和</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">1.353</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial">等两个位置。日内目标点位在</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">1.36</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial">关口，而再上方的阻力则要看</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">1.375</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial">附近。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:PMingLiU;
mso-fareast-language:ZH-TW"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:
Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">今日关注数据</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">19:00<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">
</span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:
Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">美国</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">12</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;
mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:
windowtext">月小型企业信心指数</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;
mso-fareast-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">22:30<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">
</span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:
Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">美联储多个官员发表讲话</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">23:00<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">
</span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-family:
Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">鲍威尔出席美联储主席连任听证会</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="paragraph" style="margin:0in;vertical-align:baseline"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span class="normaltextrun"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">联系我们</span></b></span><span class="normaltextrun"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span></span><span class="normaltextrun"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span></span><span class="eop"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"></span></span></p>
<p class="paragraph" style="margin:0in;vertical-align:baseline"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span class="normaltextrun"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">电话：</span></span><span class="normaltextrun"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">167
4049 5509</span></span><span class="normaltextrun"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">（中国）</span></span><span class="normaltextrun"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span></span><span class="normaltextrun"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span></span><span class="eop"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"></span></span></p>
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