【ACY证券】市场期望落空股市开启反弹，日新增150万例提高风险等级
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-hansi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">昨日的金融市场如预期出现巨大波动，一切皆源于鲍威尔在连任听证会中的讲话。讲话中虽然提及多次加息并在年内缩表，表示将通过货币紧缩来抑制供需失衡与通胀上行，但仍然没有明确表示具体的加息与缩表时间。<b>鲍威尔随后补充道，美国距离货币政策正常化还有漫长的路要走，可能需要更多的时间恢复利率。</b>这样的态度无疑令市场失望，导致黄金与美国股市大涨，而美元承压下滑。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-hansi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-hansi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">值得关注的是，这是鲍威尔首次公开表示将在年内开始缩表。相比于加息，市场目前对缩表的讨论热度并不高。但事实上，缩表的本质是回收市场中泛滥的流动性，简单来说，便是将先前撒出去的钱再拿回来。其对风险资产的估值影响并不小，因此股市投资者需要对缩表有一定的了解。回顾美国股市历史上经历了两次缩表，分别在</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">1999</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-hansi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">年和</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">2017</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-hansi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">年，两次缩表均引发股市激荡。标普指数在两次缩表期间大幅波动，不过均未形成下跌趋势。<b>因此不管是加息还是缩表，都只是中短线影响，长线趋势看的仍然是美国的经济恢复情况。</b></span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-hansi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""><b></b></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-hansi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">然而金融市场就像与人对弈，每局棋皆有不同之处。目前美国经济远不能用“稳定”来形容，<b>疫情严重性超乎想象，单日新增病例数已然高达</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">150</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
mso-hansi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">万例。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
mso-hansi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">住院人数也屡创新高，医疗系统的压力异常沉重。新一轮的疫情问题也愈发明显，零售、餐饮、酒店与航空等行业的劳动力短缺严重，企业也被迫限制了经营行为。供应链紧缩也随之加速通胀上行，将同时提前美联储紧缩的安排。<b>因此美国股市很可能加大震荡的幅度，投资者可以采用高抛低吸的策略。</b></span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202201/12/140522b27onm1kqz777301.jpg<br></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="mso-no-proof:yes">
</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-fareast-font-family:DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">NAS100</span></i><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
mso-hansi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">日线图</span></i><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-hansi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">从纳指日线图，经过本周的各种事件影响，指数价格跌深反弹，在</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">15500</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-hansi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">关口形成了长下影线，维持了底部的支撑效果。目前</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">K</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-hansi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">线形态呈现高位大幅波动，形成了箱体震荡形态。伴随昨日鲍威尔的讲话，纳指大幅反弹。指标方面来看，威廉指标从超卖区回到中心区，短线释放多头信号。今晚的通胀数据可能加快纳指反弹的节奏，<b>因此日内与短线交易策略以逢低做多为主。日内支撑要看</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">15750</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
mso-hansi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">和</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">15650</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
mso-hansi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">两个位置。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
mso-hansi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">不过中线交易以空单为主，关注</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">16600</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-hansi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">位置的高位回调，以及</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">15500</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-hansi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">的突破跟随等入场机会。中线支撑在</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">14450</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-hansi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">附近。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:PMingLiU;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-fareast-language:ZH-TW"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
mso-hansi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">今日关注数据</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">18:00<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;
mso-color-alt:windowtext">欧元区</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">11</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">月工业产出月率</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">21:30<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;
mso-color-alt:windowtext">美国</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">12</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">月</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">CPI</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">月率</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">23:30<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;
mso-color-alt:windowtext">美国当周</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">EIA</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">原油库存</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></p>
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