【ACY证券】欧洲天然气价格是美国的十倍，出口油轮集体转向西欧
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-hansi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">纵观整个市场，最近涨势最好的商品必然是能源类大宗商品。作为高通胀的主因之一，能源的成本在经历去年</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">11</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-hansi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">月份的回调后，再度回归强势。即便欧美政府信誓旦旦地说会控制汽油价格，但效果实则杯水车薪，还不如奥密克戎病毒的影响大。<b>在能源三大商品中，</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">WTI</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
mso-hansi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">原油与布伦特原油涨势较好，但近期最值得关注的却是天然气，尤其是美国天然气的价格，有不错的看涨机会。</span></b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
mso-hansi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-hansi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">为什么要特指美国天然气呢？因为<b>全球各地的天然气价格差异巨大，年初欧洲天然气的价格竟是美国的</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">10</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
mso-hansi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">倍有余。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
mso-hansi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">和煤炭与原油不同，液化天然气的储存与运输的成本较高，这就导致天然气价格受到地理环境的极大影响。其价格也因此分裂成三个区域，分别是美国、欧洲与亚洲。由于欧洲能源危机，以及俄罗斯“北溪</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">2</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-hansi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">号”项目停滞等多方面因素影响，欧洲天然气在过去半年里爆发式涨价，价格翻了有十几倍。反而<b>美国作为天然气出口大国，国内的供应相对稳定，因此价格并未受到太大的影响。</b></span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202201/13/134027xdkd60d0qsdn4zqp.jpg<br></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="mso-no-proof:yes">
</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-fareast-font-family:DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
mso-hansi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">过去一年欧洲天然气价格（与美国价格单位不同）</span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-hansi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">不过全球天然气局势在近期发生了改变。从图中可见，欧洲天然气价格自年初开始，便大幅下滑。美国的价格反而触底反弹，近两日更是连续大涨。其背后的原因非常简单，那便是国际贸易。据悉，就在</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">12</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-hansi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">月底欧洲天然气大涨之际，大量来自美国的液化天然气油轮驶向了西欧，横跨大西洋的油轮数量大幅增加。这就导致<b>欧洲天然气供给增加，而美国天然气需求上升，两边价格也随之靠拢。</b>与此同时，欧洲方面本周为天然气打上“绿色标签”，对天然气勘探开采方面的投资也会随之水涨船高。因此<b>除了逢低做多天然气大宗商品外，投资天然气相关股票同样是值得关注的机会。</b></span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202201/13/134049i0d2v18xru21201j.jpg<br></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-hansi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">作为美国最大的能源生产商，艾克森美孚必然是投资者的首选之一。从股价日线图来看，受到原油与天然气大涨影响，股价也在经历近一年的整理后开启大幅上涨。</span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">K</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
mso-hansi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">线形态上呈现典型的高位箱体的突破行情，形成涨平涨的多头局势。</span></b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">CCI</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-hansi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">趋势指标进入</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">+100</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-hansi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">区域，说明多头力量较为充足。不过考虑到近期疫情的影响，股价存在回调压力。整体来看，交易策略以回踩做多为主，可以配合</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">CCI</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-hansi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">趋势指标再度上穿</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">+100</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-hansi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">线的多头信号。现价下方的关键支撑在趋势线和箱体上沿，也就是</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">65-66.5</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
mso-hansi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">区间。再下方的支撑则要看</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">58</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-hansi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">的起涨点附近。上方阻力可以先看</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">72</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-hansi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">位置。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
DengXian;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:PMingLiU;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-fareast-language:ZH-TW"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
mso-hansi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">今日关注数据</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">21:00<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;
mso-color-alt:windowtext">美联储多名官员发表讲话</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">21:30<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;
mso-color-alt:windowtext">美国</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">12</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">月</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">PPI</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">月率</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">21:30<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;
mso-color-alt:windowtext">美国当周初请失业金人数</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">23:30<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;
mso-color-alt:windowtext">美国当周</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">EIA</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">天然气库存</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></p>
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