【ACY证券】疫情见顶之际，经济衰退之时，哪个国家的股市值得关注
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">就在疫情看似见顶之际，美国的经济数据却已经出现衰退的迹象。经济衰退并不是一个罕见的现象，一个国家的经济不可能永远一帆风顺，总是有所起伏。在新冠疫情期间，全球经济受到大面积政策刺激，让各大国家顺利度过危机，反而出现“疫情越严重，经济越强势”的现象。<b>然而这种方式也透支了未来的经济增长，耗尽了资本市场的信心。</b>单从美国标普指数来看，其整体市盈率在去年中旬高达</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">35</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">倍，远超过长期均衡水平。<b>所谓“水满则溢，月盈则亏”，当刺激政策开始撤出市场，同样被抽离的是资本的信心。</b>而最近由于投资者对美联储加息的超额预期，导致风险偏好急速降温，全球股市也随之崩盘。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">虽然市场对加息有着强烈的预期，但美联储官方或者说鲍威尔的态度一直是三缄其口，对加息言论极为谨慎。这背后最大的原因在于，加息不一定能够改善目前的通胀问题。<b>目前的高通胀主要源于疫情下的供需错配、新能源浪潮下的产能不足以及国际关系的紧张。货币政策在其中更多的是起到推波助澜的作用</b>，美联储加息可能缓解一时之苦，但无法完全扭转通胀局势。因此即便白宫政府不断对美联储施压，总统拜登与财长耶伦先后表示要调整政策以控制通胀水平，但美联储究竟何时加息仍有很大的不确定性。<b>本周三美市盘中，美联储即将发布最新的利率决议。</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">ACY</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">证券认为，本次决议内容不会比市场预期更加鹰派，大概率会处在加息时间的讨论阶段，因此本周的交易策略也要随之进行调整。</span></b></span></p><p><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202201/24/132627uw75jejbgdx90tez.jpg<br></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="mso-no-proof:yes">
</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin-bottom:0in;text-align:center;
line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">UK100</span></i><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">日线图</span></i><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">从英国股指日线图来看，相比其他指数，英国股指无疑表现得更为抗跌。之所以会出现这种现象是因为英国的股票估值长久以来一向偏低，在其他指数纷纷大涨之际，英国股指却一直没能突破疫情前的水平。这就使得在全球资本大举抛售之际，英国股指表现得较为抗跌。从形态上来看，</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">K</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">线的上升通道极为明显，</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">100</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">日均线稳定向上，还未出现头部翻转结构，整体呈现稳定多头局势。因此交易策略采用中短线逢低做多为主。<b>现价下方的第一支撑在</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">7400</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">的前高点阻力转支撑水平线，考虑到全球股指纷纷触及关键支撑，存在短线反弹的可能，</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">7400</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">是不错的短线多单入场位置。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">可以关注今晚发布的英国</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">PMI</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">数据，增加基本面胜率。再下方的支撑则要看</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">7200</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">关口，该位置是长期震荡上沿与通道下沿的共同结构，将提供较强的支撑效果。中长线投资者可以关注该位置的布局机会，入场时机可以配合随机指标的超卖区金叉形态。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-font-family:PMingLiU;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";mso-fareast-language:ZH-TW"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">今日关注数据</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">17:00<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">欧元区</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">1</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">月制造业</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">PMI</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">17:30<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">英国</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">1</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">月制造业</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">PMI</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">17:30<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">英国</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">1</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">月服务业</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">PMI</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">22:45<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">美国</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">1</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">月</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">Markit</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">制造业</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">PMI</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">22:45<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">美国</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">1</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">月</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">Markit</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">服务业</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">PMI</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
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baseline"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
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baseline"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;vertical-align:
baseline"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
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baseline"><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202201/24/132656a2fsqyd2sxeqqeuw.jpg<br><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family:
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