【ACY证券】股市开启全面反弹，是机构在抄底，还是主力的陷阱？
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:150%"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: DengXian;">上周五美市收盘阶段，美国股市出现反弹，很多投资人认为这是机构开始接盘的信号。但事实上，各大金融机构对目前市场的看法分歧巨大。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: DengXian;">有些机构认为，全球正在面临经济再度下滑，紧缩政策会令市场难以反弹。但也有机构认为，那些绩优股在遭到短线抛售后，反而出现长期投资的机会。对于是抄底还是观望，全球股民们众说纷纭。目前的金融市场恐惧与贪婪交织，机会与风险纠缠，投资者需要对股市是否真的见底有明晰的判断。尤其要关注美国纳斯达克指数与道琼斯指数的后续走向。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202201/31/144302z51u9xxxd1ysmadi.jpg<br></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:150%"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="mso-no-proof:yes">
</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-fareast-font-family:PMingLiU;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-fareast-language:ZH-TW"></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin-bottom:0in;text-align:center;
line-height:150%"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-fareast-language:ZH-TW">美联储扩表与科技巨头股价</span></i><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-font-family:PMingLiU;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";mso-fareast-language:ZH-TW"></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:150%"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-TW" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
mso-fareast-language:ZH-TW">要明白股市是否见底需要通过两方面来判断，一是已经跌了多少，二是还会跌多久。通过图中可见，央行释放流动性</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">是令全球股市尤其是科技巨头暴涨的关键原因。<b>伴随政策紧缩信号与恐慌情绪施压，股市价格开始回归，中短线下跌动力极强，蓝线很可能下穿黑线并继续下行。</b>由此可见，全球股市还有很大的回调空间，这波熊市很可能远没有结束。此外，由于美联储本轮政策紧缩的态度相对强硬，市场的回调周期也会相应拉长。在真正加息政策落地之前，股市可能仍将保持空头局势。<b>如果综合看待目前全球机构的态度，普遍的预期是股市短期内继续回调，长期存在投资机会。</b>而那些强势看好的机构，往往只针对奈飞和苹果这类绩优股。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:150%"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="mso-no-proof:yes">
</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:
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mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin-bottom:0in;text-align:center;
line-height:150%"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">NAS100</span></i><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">日线图</span></i><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:150%"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">从纳斯达克指数日线图来看，经过连续一个月的下跌，</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">100</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">日均线出现拐点。指数价格直接跌破了关键的</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">14400</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">支撑，但在</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">14000</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">整数位关口企稳，形成典型的中继形态。这个位置的技术性反弹较为合理，但无法形成价格趋势。熊市力量指标虽然同样有所反弹，但仍保持在零线下方，释放空头信号。<b>考虑到全球可能出现踩踏式抛售现象，即便是机构也不会大规模入场。因此最近两日的价格方向极为重要。</b>日内交易主要以逢高做空为主，由于形态上呈现突破回踩的熊市格局，因此入场时机主要看</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">14400</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">的颈线水平位置。交易策略属于左侧入场，需要相应扩大盈亏比。再上方的阻力则要看上周高点</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">14600</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">位置，而下方支撑则是</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">13800</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">前低点附近。短线空单入场则需要耐心等待中继形态突破，一旦指数下穿</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">13800</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">关口，便有跟随空单机会。再下方的支撑则要看</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">13000</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">整数位关口，该位置同时也是长线斐波那契</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">0.382</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">回调线。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:150%"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-font-family:
PMingLiU;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
mso-fareast-language:ZH-TW"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:150%;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">今日关注数据</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:150%;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">18:00<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">欧元区第四季度</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">GDP</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">年率</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:150%;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">21:00<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">德国</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">1</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
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color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">月</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
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color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">CPI</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">月率</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:150%;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">23:30<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
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color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">美国</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">1</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">月达拉斯联储商业活动指数</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:150%;background:white"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:DengXian;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;vertical-align:
baseline"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";mso-ansi-language:EN-US">联系我们</span></b><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:SimSun;
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mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: "Segoe UI", sans-serif;"></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;vertical-align:
baseline"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";mso-ansi-language:EN-US">电话：</span><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";
mso-ansi-language:EN-US">167 4049 5509<span lang="ZH-CN">（中国）</span></span><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:SimSun;
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baseline"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
SimSun;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI"">1300
729 171</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
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mso-fareast-font-family:SimSun;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;vertical-align:
baseline"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI"">QQ</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
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mso-fareast-font-family:SimSun;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: "Segoe UI", sans-serif;"></span></span></p>
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baseline"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
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