【ACY证券】俄乌战争“来袭”金价暴涨，投资者是否需要提前避险？
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">上周五的市场行情无疑让交易者咋舌，尤其是黄金，价格可谓是一飞冲天。不过仔细分析价格走势能够发现，上周五的行情分成了两个阶段。首先是美国发布密歇根大学消费者信心指数，数值再度创下十余年来新低。<b>消费预期不足降低加息预期，导致美元反转下滑，而黄金与</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">WTI</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">原油随之上涨。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">不过这个阶段的价格变动幅度并不大。<b>真正引发后续巨震的是俄罗斯与乌克兰的“入侵战争”风险。</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></b></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""><b></b></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">美国方面传出消息，称俄罗斯可能即将“入侵”乌克兰。西方国家对此相继发出了警告，并威胁将对俄罗斯实施经济制裁。不过俄罗斯方面旋即表示“入侵”乌克兰属于虚假消息，目前仍在寻求达成协议。那么究竟俄乌战争是否真的会打响呢？并非没有可能。<b>早在</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">2014</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">年，俄罗斯便在乌克兰境内发生了长达一年的顿巴斯战争。从上周五价格表现也能看出市场对战争的恐惧，黄金、美元、日元、原油价格纷纷大幅冲高，与之前的平缓走势截然不同。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">不过投资者在避险之前必须问一个问题，黄金价格真的能够突破目前“加息”的牢笼吗？</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">自从美国脱离布雷顿森林体系至今，全球大大小小的战争都没有掀起黄金浪潮，其中正包括了俄罗斯的车臣战争。<b>观察历史金价波动，黄金升值往往发生在战争发生之前，而当局部战争打响后，金价更容易震荡或下滑。</b>这是因为战争避险的需求已经提前被纳入黄金的市价当中。因此即便俄乌战争真的打响，对金价的推动作用可能并没有市场想象中那么强势，反而可能点燃各类大宗商品的价格。<b>尤其当涉及到俄罗斯这样的产油大国，一旦实施能源出口限令，那么原油与天然气将不会屈就于现价波动的范围。</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></b></span></p><p><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202202/14/144758nj9o9ow776kke97r.jpg<br></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="mso-no-proof:yes">
</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">XAUUSD</span></i><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">日线图</span></i><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">从黄金日线图来看，虽然伴随上周五的行情，金价扭转颓势大幅上扬，但终究还是没有突破趋势线压制，在</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">1860</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">位置暂时企稳。形态上仍然保持收敛三角形，目前</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">K</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">线正处在关键的阻力位置。不过现在就说金价涨到头了还为时尚早，日内上升动力可能仍将延续，需要观察金价是否会在趋势线上站稳。考虑到欧洲为加息降温，同时消费者信心指数的推动力耗尽，基本面仍有做空的机会。不过<b>交易策略需要等待强空头信号，可以等待价格实体下穿</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">1850</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">关口，小时级别</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">MACD</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">形成高位死叉，才是空单入场的时机。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">俄乌关系缓和与美联储加息提前均可能引发金价大跌，需要重点关注。现价下方的短线支撑先看</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">1835</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">趋势线附近。上方阻力在</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">1860</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">关口附近。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">今日关注数据</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">00:00<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;
mso-color-alt:windowtext">欧洲央行行长拉加德发表讲话</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">00:30<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;
mso-color-alt:windowtext">美联储理事会召开闭门会议</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></p>
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<p class="paragraph" style="margin:0in;vertical-align:baseline"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span class="normaltextrun"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">微信：</span></span><span class="normaltextrun"><span style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">acyau2011</span></span><span class="normaltextrun"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span></span><span class="normaltextrun"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span></span><span class="eop"><span style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "Segoe UI", sans-serif;"></span></span></p>
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<p class="paragraph" style="margin:0in;vertical-align:baseline"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span class="normaltextrun"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">邮箱：</span></span><span class="normaltextrun"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; color: blue;">[email protected]</span></span><span class="normaltextrun"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"> </span></span></span></p><p class="paragraph" style="margin:0in;vertical-align:baseline"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span class="normaltextrun"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"></span></span></span></p><p class="paragraph" style="margin:0in;vertical-align:baseline"><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202202/14/144818dwgfo7glwi6wsyj0.jpg<br><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span class="normaltextrun"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"> </span></span><span class="eop"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"> </span></span></span><span class="normaltextrun" style="font-size: large; background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: "Segoe UI", sans-serif;"> </span></span><span class="eop" style="font-size: large; background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: "Segoe UI", sans-serif;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="paragraph" style="margin:0in;vertical-align:baseline"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span class="normaltextrun"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span></span><span class="normaltextrun"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span></span><span class="eop"><span style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "Segoe UI", sans-serif;"></span></span></p>
<p class="paragraph" style="margin:0in;vertical-align:baseline"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span class="normaltextrun"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">免责声明：</span></b></span><span class="normaltextrun"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span></span><span class="normaltextrun"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span></span><span class="eop"><span style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "Segoe UI", sans-serif;"></span></span></p>
<p class="paragraph" style="margin:0in;background:white;vertical-align:baseline"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span class="normaltextrun"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; color: black;">本文所提供的信息仅为一般建议，并未考虑到投资者的个人目标、财务状况或投资需求。
外汇和衍生品交易风险较高。 在您决定进行外汇交易投资之前，我们建议您考虑您的投资目标、风险承受能力以及交易经验。 有任何疑问，请您咨询独立专业的财务或税务的意见。</span></span><span class="normaltextrun"><span style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; color: black;">ACY Securities Pty Ltd<span lang="ZH-CN">（</span>AFSL 403863<span lang="ZH-CN">）受澳大利亚证券投资委员会授权和监管。</span></span></span><span class="normaltextrun"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; color: black;"> </span></span><span class="eop"><span style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; color: black;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "Segoe UI", sans-serif;"></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></p>
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