【ACY证券】 土俄乌今日开启三方会谈，全球市场集体倒挂全面回调
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">最近国际局势越来越明朗了。从战争方面来看，俄乌双方约定今日在土耳其进行三方会谈，这也是俄乌高层首次直接接触。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">乌克兰方面已经对加入北约松口，相当于给了俄罗斯一个台阶。虽然俄罗斯的最终目的可能不仅限于此，但仍然在一定程度上缓解了紧张局势。从制裁角度来看，俄罗斯始终没有停止能源的供应，根据昨日</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">EIA</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">当周数据显示，美国对俄罗斯的原油进口反而再创新高。欧洲方面同样态度暧昧，唯独英美两国手段强硬。乌克兰被夹在大国之间，如同提线木偶一般左右摇摆，失望之情已经溢于言表。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">这样的局势无疑令投资者放松了不少，整个市场瞬间反转，各大商品集体倒挂。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">全球股市触底反弹，尤其是欧洲指数集体大涨；与此同时黄金与原油纷纷收回了本周的全部涨幅，各类大宗商品接连回调。如此激烈的价格变化体现的是之前市场情绪如弹簧一样的紧绷，一旦有任何局势缓和迹象，便会触发全面回调。如果俄乌今日谈判有任何进展，那么整个市场都会延续昨日的动力。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202203/10/140140xqyvvsd3v11w01jn.jpg<br></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">USWTI</span></i><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">四小时图</span></i><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">从</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">WTI</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">原油四小时图来看，昨日油价下跌触发了空头的连续抛售，价格虽然在</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">100</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">位置触底反弹，但今日早盘仍体现下降动力。从牛熊力量指标来看，柱线已经完全突破到零线下方，虽然柱线高度逐渐缩小，但仍有不小的空头力量。<b>考虑到市场积蓄了太多的恐慌情绪，需要时间进行释放，因此交易策略仍然以日内看空为主。</b>空单入场需要配合半小时级别图的静区突破，一旦价格实体下穿</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">105.5</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">，便是不错的做空机会。现价下方的关键支撑要看</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">100</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">的整数位关口和</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">95</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">的趋势线支撑。考虑到</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">OPEC</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">组织没有加大增产的计划，同时英美仍在努力制裁能源进口，原油中线基本面仍以多头为主。等待这波回调技术后，便有油价看涨的机会。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202203/10/140124g3f3p2uaza89z31f.jpg<br></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">NAS100</span></i><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">四小时图</span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">相比之下，美国股市还远没有回到牛市当中。从纳指四小时图来看，昨日反弹的力度明显不足，甚至如不欧洲的股指，说明价格上方的空头压力较大。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">200</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">均线与长线趋势稳定压制指数价格，下跌趋势还未被打破。<b>考虑下周美联储决议一步步靠近，在决议发布会前，美国股市很可能将继续下滑，因此纳指的交易策略以逢高做空为主。</b>现价上方的关键阻力在</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">13900</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">水平线，该位置是支阻互转的关键位置。在上方则要看前高点</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">14400</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">附近，一旦价格上穿该位置，那么纳指反转底部成立，、反而是看涨的技术信号。入场时机可以配合随机指标的超买区死叉信号，增加入场胜率。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">今日关注数据</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">20:45 </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">欧洲央行公布利率决议</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">21:30 </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">美国当周初请失业金人数</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">21:30 </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">美国</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">2</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">月</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">CPI</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">年率</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
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"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">EIA</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
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