【ACY证券】日本地震股市反涨，唯一的宽松政策还能坚持多久？
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">昨日凌晨，<b>日本福岛县外海发生了</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">7.4</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">级地震，导致部分地区通讯故障、电力中断、交通停滞以及车厂停工。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">如此级别的灾害无疑令投资者担心会影响到日本股市，然而日经指数不仅没有下跌，反而保持上涨趋势，并随美指一同收出了三连阳。这背后的原因正是昨天提到的美联储利率决议引发的股市“利空出尽”现象。而且<b>日本央行昨日还表示不会跟着美联储加息，喂市场吃了一颗定心丸。</b>日经指数也因此表现得比欧美股指更好。那这是否说明日经指数值得长期投资？</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">诚然，一个国家的货币政策对其股市有着最直接的影响力。政策宽松股市上涨，政策紧缩股市下跌，这种现象在近期的市场中屡见不鲜。然而<b>不管政策如何变化，股市的长期发展看的还是国家经济的好坏</b>。而日本目前面临的困境，便是通胀上涨并没有带动经济发展，由成本端（原油价格）推高的物价反而可能限制了消费的需求。<b>在经济学中将其称为停滞性通胀，是国家经济衰退的前兆，日本的经济前景并不乐观。</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></b></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""><b></b></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">回头再看货币政策，油价昨日的反弹无疑将再度推高通胀，加快各国央行紧缩的步伐。然而日本却是目前唯一坚持宽松的发达国家，这也让很多日本股民倍感欣慰。但是投资者需要明白，<b>货币宽松在日本已经成为常态，常规的政策早已无法满足经济增长的需求。</b>这就好比漏气的轮胎，单纯打气只能解一时之需，只有通过补胎才能解决根本问题。日本央行要做的“补胎”动作便是大规模的政策刺激，而这也正是引发日经指数大涨大跌的原因。目前来看，日本的“大规模”刺激可谓是遥遥无期。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202203/18/144029meuzrgvd4wromzrm.jpg<br></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext;mso-no-proof:yes">
</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">JP225</span></i><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">日线图</span></i><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">从日经指数日线图来看，伴随油价回落以及美联储加息，指数价格利空出尽大幅反弹，不过仍受到头部颈线</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">27000</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">位置的压制，</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">100</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">日均线保持向下，空头局势较为明显。考虑到上述的基本面影响，仍应选择做空日经指数。<b>由于短线上涨趋势较强，日内仍有冲高的动力，因此交易策略以短线逢高做空为主。</b>入场时机主要看</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">27000-27700</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">的下跌中继位置，入场时机关注随机指标的超买区死叉信号。现价下方的支撑则要看</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">25000</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">的前低点整数位关口，以及疫情前</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">24000</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">的水平支撑。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">今日关注数据</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">14:30
</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">日本央行行长黑田东彦召开新闻发布会</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">18:00
</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">欧元区</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">1</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">月季调后贸易帐</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">20:30
</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">加拿大</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">1</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">月零售销售月率</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">22:00
</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">美国</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">2</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">月成屋销售总数年化</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;vertical-align:
baseline"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";mso-ansi-language:EN-US">联系我们</span></b><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:SimSun;
mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family:
"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: "Segoe UI", sans-serif;"></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;vertical-align:
baseline"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";mso-ansi-language:EN-US">电话：</span><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";
mso-ansi-language:EN-US">167 4049 5509<span lang="ZH-CN">（中国）</span></span><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:SimSun;
mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family:
"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: "Segoe UI", sans-serif;"></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;vertical-align:
baseline"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
SimSun;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI"">1300
729 171</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI"">（澳大利亚）</span><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;
mso-fareast-font-family:SimSun;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: "Segoe UI", sans-serif;"></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;vertical-align:
baseline"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI"">QQ</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI"">：</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Segoe UI""> 8008 83691 </span><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;
mso-fareast-font-family:SimSun;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: "Segoe UI", sans-serif;"></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;vertical-align:
baseline"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";mso-ansi-language:EN-US">微信：</span><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";
mso-ansi-language:EN-US">acyau2011</span><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;
mso-fareast-font-family:SimSun;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: "Segoe UI", sans-serif;"></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;vertical-align:
baseline"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";mso-ansi-language:EN-US">官网：</span><span lang="EN-AU"><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI"">https://www.acy.com.au</span></span><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:SimSun;
mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family:
"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: "Segoe UI", sans-serif;"></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;vertical-align:
baseline"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";mso-ansi-language:EN-US">邮箱：</span><span lang="EN-AU"><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI"">[email protected]</span></span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:SimSun;mso-hansi-font-family:
Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;vertical-align:
baseline"><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202203/18/144046cdzupk5y956ipkg4.jpg<br><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:SimSun;mso-hansi-font-family:
Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span></span><span style="font-size: large; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-size: large; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-size: large; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;vertical-align:
baseline"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";mso-ansi-language:EN-US">免责声明：</span></b><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:SimSun;
mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family:
"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: "Segoe UI", sans-serif;"></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Segoe UI";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">本文内容由第三方提供。</span><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">ACY<span lang="ZH-CN">证券对文中内容的准确性和完整性，不做任何声明或保证；由第三方的建议，预测或其他信息导致了投资损失，</span>ACY<span lang="ZH-CN">证券不承担任何责任。本文内容不构成任何投资建议，与个人投资目标，财务状况或需求无关。如有任何疑问，请您咨询独立专业的财务或税务的意见。</span>ACY
Securities Pty Ltd<span lang="ZH-CN">（</span>AFSL 403863<span lang="ZH-CN">）受澳大利亚证券投资委员会授权和监管。</span></span><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></i></p>
页:
[1]