【ACY证券】乌克兰公投决定对俄“妥协”，食品与原油是否有转机？
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">拖了整整一周的俄乌谈判已经陷入僵局再无进展，风险情绪也在逐渐积累，并反映在黄金与能源的价格反弹当中。分析过去一周整个市场的走势，多数投资者非常期待本次谈判能有所结果。然而随着一天一天的拖延，俄乌的局势并没有得到缓解，市场的侥幸心理也被消磨殆尽，全球股市很可能即将再度面临大规模抛售。不过就在今日，<b>乌克兰总统泽连斯基表示对俄罗斯作出的任何“妥协”都需要由乌克兰公民投票决定，里外里透露出一股停战的气息。</b>泽连斯基真会当起“甩手掌柜”，将乌克兰的命运交给公投吗？</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">首先要明白的是，公投投的是什么？在乌克兰表示不可能加入北约之后，目前俄乌之间最大的分歧便在于乌克兰东部地区的独立。对于乌克兰而言，“保护国土完整”是第一要务（按照泽连斯基的原话）。一旦乌东地区独立，很可能会直接倒向俄罗斯联邦。所以<b>昨日提到的“妥协”公投很可能便是让乌东地区的公民进行投票，选择是否成为独立共和国。</b>如此罕见的公投其实在数年前便已经发生了一次。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">那便是著名的克里米亚公投事件，同样是投票从乌克兰独立。投票结果显示约</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">97%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">的选民赞成脱乌入俄，由此克里米亚成为了一个独立和主权国家。然而投票的结果并没有得到大部分西方国家的承认，乌克兰政府甚至裁定公投违宪，之后又引发了顿巴斯战争。如此看来，<b>即便乌克兰真的公投“妥协”了，也并不代表国际局势会就此冷静下来。</b>西方国家不会愿意看到俄罗斯的“国土扩张”，制裁力度很可能会随之升级。<b>对于金融市场而言，不管是能源、金属、肥料还是粮食，价格很可能还会随之上涨，全球的通胀远没有见顶。</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></b></span></p><p><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202203/22/152945q47ijj7in2vihd47.jpg<br></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="mso-no-proof:yes">
</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
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<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">FOOD</span></i><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">四小时图</span></i><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">FOOD</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">这个</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">ETF</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">中包含了化学肥料、农产品、农业机械、包装肉类等多个行业的股票，在目前的环境中值得投资者关注。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">从</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">FOOD</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">四小时图来看，指数上涨动力非常明显，两条上升通道代表了战争发生前后指价格的多头动力。指标方面，</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">CCI</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">趋势指标保持在</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">+100</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
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"Microsoft YaHei"">和</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">8.1</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">的趋势线支撑，配合上</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">AC</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">柱线零线下方的变色，便是不错的做多机会。止盈位置可以关注日线级别的九转指标的数字“</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
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mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">”信号。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
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