【ACY证券】大通胀时代即将历史重演，上游通胀“摧毁”下游需求
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">最近各国央行纷纷针对蔓延全球的高通胀展开了行动，虽然都承认了目前通胀非常高，但是对未来通胀的看法却是千差万别。部分官员认为通胀主要源于疫情和战争对供应链的一次性冲击，通胀终究会回落，经济也会随之好转。另一部分官员却认为通胀已经开始螺旋上涨，再不用强硬手段便无法控制。<b>目前全球面临的危机其实和</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">1970</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">的“大通胀”环境有着异曲同工之妙。诚然，通胀是由短期事件引起的，但事件结束不代表通胀会自行回落。</span></b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">1973</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">年的石油危机同样令油价暴涨，但美国的通胀直到</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">1982</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">年才出现明显回落。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">股票市场本应是抗通胀的最佳选择，但这里有一个前提，要求消费需求保持增长。然而目前的通胀来源于上游成本端，其中包括原油、金属、粮食与肥料等等。<b>一旦生产成本超过商品售价，那么中下游企业便会停止生产，从而连带摧毁整个市场的需求。</b>这也是为什么欧美国家相继取消了燃油消费税，目标便是给中下游企业留有盈利的空间，为通胀暴涨留下了一丝的缓冲余地。目前的欧美国家的经济就像踩在高空中的钢丝上，一旦出现新的变种病毒、或者俄罗斯直接“吞并”乌东地区，很可能令全球经济陷入衰退的境地。<b>相比中下游面临风险，上游商品、企业与资产无疑更加保险。</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></b></span></p><p><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202203/29/093056kglyvpihgjj7wl81.jpg<br></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="mso-no-proof:yes">
</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">WTI</span></i><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">原油一小时图</span></i><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">综上所述，看涨原油仍然是中长线的趋势。不过<b>由于欧洲方面刚宣布放弃实施俄罗斯能源禁令，油价的利空很可能会延续一段时间，多单入场需要等待价格回调结束。</b>从</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">WTI</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">原油小时图来看，受到北约峰会放弃制裁的影响，油价高位回落，今日早盘延续了下跌趋势。动量指标在中线附近徘徊，日内的下冲动能并不明朗。一旦油价下穿</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">108</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">颈线位置，头肩顶反转形态成立，油价很可能会在短线内继续下滑。考虑到西方国家不会坐视乌东地区公投入俄，油价仍将保持长期的强势上涨。因此交易策略需要分成两个部分。首先关注日内</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">108</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">位置是否能够支撑住油价，如果</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">K</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">线在颈线位置形成长下影线或反转组合，便是日内多单的入场机会。<b>如果</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">K</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">线下穿，头部成型，便需要耐心等待价格筑底。现价下方的支撑在</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">100</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">的整数位关口和</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">97.5</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">的需求区和趋势线的共同结构</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">，尤其是</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">97.5</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">位置有着非常强的长线支撑力量。现价上方的阻力主要看</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">115</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">和</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">125</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">两个位置。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">今日关注数据</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">19:00 </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">英国央行行长贝利发表讲话</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">22:30 </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">美国达拉斯联储商业活动指数</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
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mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";mso-ansi-language:EN-US">联系我们</span></b><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:SimSun;
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baseline"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI"">QQ</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI"">：</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Segoe UI""> 8008 83691 </span><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;
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mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: "Segoe UI", sans-serif;"></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;vertical-align:
baseline"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";mso-ansi-language:EN-US">微信：</span><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";
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baseline"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";mso-ansi-language:EN-US">官网：</span><span lang="EN-AU"><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI"">https://www.acy.com.au</span></span><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:SimSun;
mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family:
"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: "Segoe UI", sans-serif;"></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;vertical-align:
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baseline"><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202203/29/093217k90npy0l77gsyvz9.jpg<br><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:SimSun;mso-hansi-font-family:
Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: "Segoe UI", sans-serif;"></span></span></p>
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baseline"><span style="font-size: large; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-size: large; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-size: large; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;"> </span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
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color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">ACY<span lang="ZH-CN">证券对文中内容的准确性和完整性，不做任何声明或保证；由第三方的建议，预测或其他信息导致了投资损失，</span>ACY<span lang="ZH-CN">证券不承担任何责任。本文内容不构成任何投资建议，与个人投资目标，财务状况或需求无关。如有任何疑问，请您咨询独立专业的财务或税务的意见。</span>ACY
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