【ACY证券】疫苗研发赶不上病毒变异，新冠药物股票弯道超车
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">随着西方国家一个接一个放弃清零，逐步躺平开放国境，疫情的威胁渐渐地被抛诸脑后。然而就算人们的关注点发生转移，新冠病毒自身却并没有停止变异的脚步。据报道，<b>在过去的短短一个月里，世卫组织已经发现了</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">BA2</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">、</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">BA3</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">、</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">BA4</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">、</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">BA5</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">以及</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">XE</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">型等多种奥密克戎变种毒株，这些毒株的传染力也是逐层递增。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">就目前的趋势来看，现有的疫苗不管是打三针还是四针，都可能无法产生有效的长期防护作用，只能缓解患病的严重程度。现在就断言，新冠疫情即将结束还为时尚早，“与新冠共存”仍是摆在明面上的选择。<b>在病毒不断变异的情况下，疫苗的效果或将受到质疑，研发进度赶不上变异速度，反而治疗类药物的需求在未来可能逐步提高。</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;"></span></b></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;"><b></b></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">和疫苗产生有针对性的抗体不同，药物往往会直接作用在病毒本身。以目前获得美国</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">FDA</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">批准的辉瑞口服药</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">Paxlovid</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">为例，它是一种蛋白酶抑制剂，用来限制病毒的复制。根据现有资料显示，</span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">Paxlovid</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">对奥密克戎等变种病毒仍然能够保持较高的有效性，而且不容易出现抗药性。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">如果各国真的选择与新冠共存，那么这些药物很可能将有长期稳定的需求。而这种想法其实已经反映在市场当中，<b>在</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">Moderna</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">等疫苗股价持续下跌的情况下，辉瑞和默克等研发出药物的股价却已经开始单向上涨。</span></b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;"></span></b></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">从财报上来看，辉瑞近两年的表现无疑受到疫苗销售的利好，去年的营收与利润直接翻倍。不过，股价的涨幅并不显著，市盈率反而从</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">21.5</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">降低至</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">14.3</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">。主要原因在于<b>投资者认为疫苗的销售是一锤子买卖，一旦疫情结束，辉瑞的盈利仍将回到疫情前的水平。</b>不过这种情况自</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">2</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">月底开始便发生了改变，<b>口服药的出现令辉瑞受到更多中线投资者的关注。</b>因此看涨辉瑞股价是中线的较好机会。需要注意，虽然辉瑞药物有效性远高于默克，但长期财务稳定性却不及默克。投资者可以根据自身需求有选择性地进行投资。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;"></span></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202204/12/143041o9441oxdn26277fg.jpg<br></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU"></span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align: center; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">Pfizer</span></i><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">日线图</span></i><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;"></span></i></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">从辉瑞日线图来看，股价目前处在上涨趋势中，下方有着两根趋势线作为强支撑。指标方面，</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">OBV</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">能量潮指标底部成型，开始震荡反弹；强力指标刚上破零线，维持水平趋势。整体来看，上涨趋势已经成型，不过短线存在回调压力。考虑到美国医疗板块最近大幅下滑，因此交易策略以等待回调结束后再行买入为主。<b>现价下方的支撑位置主要集中在</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">50.5-52</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">的前低点需求区和趋势线的共同结构。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">再下方的支撑则要看</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">48</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">附近。入场时机可以等待价格底部成型。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">今日关注数据</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;"></span></b></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in; line-height: normal; background: white;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">20:30 </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">美国</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">3</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">月</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">CPI</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">年率</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in; line-height: normal; background: white;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">21:00 OPEC</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">公布原油市场月度报告</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in; 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