【ACY证券】欧洲利率决议强势来袭，欧元能否借机翻身触底反弹？
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">千呼万唤始出来，欧洲央行利率决议今晚终于要来了。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">观察昨日新西兰和加拿大的利率决议，对外汇市场的影响各有不同。早已加息三次的新西兰央行突然宣布加息</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">50</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">基点，高于市场预期。不过纽元在短线急速冲高后，未能突破关键阻力，开始大幅回调。反观缓慢加息的加拿大央行同样宣布加息</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">50</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">基点，符合市场预期，但加元却开始强势升值。<b>同样是加息</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">50</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">个基点，纽元与加元表现差异巨大。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">由此可以分析出一个结论，目前利率决议的影响取决于本币汇率位置的高低以及央行之前鹰派态度的强弱。<b>货币越弱，决议后的涨幅便可能越大。当然也不能忽视决议本身的内容。</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></b></span></p><p><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202204/14/140842vlao6uro4dapea4p.jpg<br></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext;mso-no-proof:yes">
</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin-bottom:0in;text-align:center;
line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;
mso-color-alt:windowtext">EURUSD</span></i><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">四小时图</span></i><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">欧洲央行无疑是目前最为鸽派的西方经济体，欧元的颓势也仅次于日元。难道欧洲就没有通胀压力不需要加息吗？其实不然，欧洲目前的通胀压力巨大。受到俄乌战争的影响，能源与粮食的物价飙升，导致最新</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">CPI</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">同比暴涨。</span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">3</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">月底德法公布通胀数据后，欧元表现异常强势，汇率创下整个</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">3</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">月份的最高水平。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">然而从</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">4</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">月份开始便不断传出欧洲央行的鸽派消息，行长拉加德仍认为通胀会自行回落，可能要到年底才加息，欧元随之开始高位回落。市场也开始认为，<b>在战争风险的压迫下，欧洲央行不可能冒着经济滞胀的风险去大幅加息。</b>外汇交易员纷纷开始抛售欧元，导致<b>欧元在</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">4</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">月份呈现单边贬值</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">。不过这样的单边行情也代表了央行的鸽派态度已经被纳入市价当中，<b>一旦今晚的利率决议释放鹰派信号，欧元很可能强势反弹。</b></span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">在外汇市场中，欧元与美元的关系最为紧密。一般都是欧元涨美元跌，或欧元跌美元涨，很少有同涨同跌的情况。最近美元的表现可谓是外强中干，在美联储鹰派态度下不断冲高，美元指数却始终无法站上</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">100</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">大关。昨晚加拿大加息后美元的崩盘同样可以证明这一点。正如</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">ACY</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">证券之前的分析，美联储快速加息已经被纳入美元市价当中，美元可能已经接近长线顶部。<b>随着欧洲与美国货币政策差距缩小，欧美货币对将逐步加固底部，并开启长线上涨的行情。</b>今晚的利率决议或将成为多头试水的机会。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202204/14/140816ud3is73smjskddiz.jpg<br></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext;mso-no-proof:yes">
</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin-bottom:0in;text-align:center;
line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;
mso-color-alt:windowtext">EURUSD</span></i><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">一小时图</span></i><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">从欧美小时图来看，虽然欧元近期非常弱势，但在接近</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">1.08</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">位置时仍然受到多头支撑。该位置非常重要，受到</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">3</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">年来汇率最低点和超长线趋势共同支撑。受到昨日加拿大加息影响，美元贬值连带欧元大涨，欧美在</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">1.081-1.084</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">区间形成了跌平涨需求区结构。配合上上述的基本面影响，<b>如果今晚决议呈鸽派，那么交易策略以等待回调至需求区后逢低做多为主</b>，入场时机配合随机指标超卖区金叉信号。下方</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">1.08</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">位置可以作为严格止损点位参考。<b>如果决议超预期鹰派，欧美很可能急速冲高。</b>交易者需要耐心等待</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">K</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">线实体上穿</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">1.094</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">底部颈线，再行入场多单。最后需要提醒长线交易者，俄乌战争仍是欧元最大的利空风险。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">今日关注数据</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">19:45 </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">欧洲央行公布利率决议</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">20:30 </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">欧洲央行拉加德召开新闻发布会</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
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"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">20:30 </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">美国当周初请失业金人数</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
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"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">20:30 </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">美国</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">3</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;vertical-align:
baseline"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";mso-ansi-language:EN-US">微信：</span><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";
mso-ansi-language:EN-US">acyau2011</span><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;
mso-fareast-font-family:SimSun;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: "Segoe UI", sans-serif;"></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;vertical-align:
baseline"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";mso-ansi-language:EN-US">官网：</span><span lang="EN-AU"><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI"">https://www.acy.com.au</span></span><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:SimSun;
mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family:
"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: "Segoe UI", sans-serif;"></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;vertical-align:
baseline"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";mso-ansi-language:EN-US">邮箱：</span><span lang="EN-AU"><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI"">[email protected]</span></span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:SimSun;mso-hansi-font-family:
Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;vertical-align:
baseline"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:SimSun;mso-hansi-font-family:
Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;vertical-align:
baseline"><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202204/14/140915nyblhks9yhmdlelf.jpg<br><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:SimSun;mso-hansi-font-family:
Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: "Segoe UI", sans-serif;"></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;vertical-align:
baseline"><span style="font-size: large; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-size: large; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-size: large; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;vertical-align:
baseline"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";mso-ansi-language:EN-US">免责声明：</span></b><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:SimSun;
mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family:
"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: "Segoe UI", sans-serif;"></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0in;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Segoe UI";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">本文内容由第三方提供。</span><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">ACY<span lang="ZH-CN">证券对文中内容的准确性和完整性，不做任何声明或保证；由第三方的建议，预测或其他信息导致了投资损失，</span>ACY<span lang="ZH-CN">证券不承担任何责任。本文内容不构成任何投资建议，与个人投资目标，财务状况或需求无关。如有任何疑问，请您咨询独立专业的财务或税务的意见。</span>ACY
Securities Pty Ltd<span lang="ZH-CN">（</span>AFSL 403863<span lang="ZH-CN">）受澳大利亚证券投资委员会授权和监管。</span></span></span><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
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