【ACY证券】顿巴斯战争或将历史重演，黄金受避险推动单向上涨
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;"> </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">自从俄乌战争开始，西方国家便展开了全面经济“闪电战”，引发资本外流、货币贬值以及违约风险。为了应对西方制裁，俄罗斯被迫暂停了股票、债券与外汇等市场交易，实施资本管制与强制出售外汇等规定，同时将基准利率从</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">9.5%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">大幅提高至</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">20%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">。由此可见，西方的制裁的确对俄罗斯经济产生了巨大的压力。不过在经历了国债评价下调与卢布暴跌等风波后，俄罗斯的经济开始适应企稳。就在昨日，总统普京称俄罗斯承受住了西方的全部压力，而央行已经计划开始放松强硬管制。目前的制裁力度可能无法阻止俄乌继续开战。<b>乌克兰总统泽连斯基同日表示，俄罗斯已经开始了对顿巴斯地区的进攻。</b>战争风险仍在继续升温，市场甚至在担心第三次世界大战的引火线是否近在眼前。</span></span></p><p><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202204/19/160211qcfvitumsf24cfzi.jpg<br></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="mso-no-proof:yes">
</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">美国</span></i><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">10</span></i><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">年期抗通胀债券收益率</span></i><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">黄金的价格无疑受到战争风险利好，自月初开始呈现稳定上涨。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">分析黄金价格近期的表现，在上涨期间不断有美联储提高加息预期的消息冲击，然而金价仍然保持着强势多头。美国</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">10</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">年期抗通胀债券收益率与黄金价格保持同涨，不断逼近零线位置。这说明市场对战争的短期担忧情绪占据上风，远超过货币紧缩对金价的影响。<b>对于交易者而言，黄金仍处在短多长空的行情当中。</b></span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">昨日，<b>美联储官员布拉德表示可能需要单次加息</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">75</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">个基点，无疑是近期最为鹰派的官员态度。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">然而黄金与美元却并未受到冲击，由于布拉德一直都是美联储的鹰派“代表”，其讲话的影响不及先前的布雷纳德。因此金价的日内反弹。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202204/19/160401h7o7ozd7rrg2dv7r.jpg<br></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">XAUUSD</span></i><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">一小时图</span></i></span><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">从黄金小时图来看，</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">200</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">均线明显上扬，金价的上升通道结构稳定，看涨局势保持完整。现价正处在上升趋势线支撑位置</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">1975</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">附近，同时</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">K</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">线震荡企稳并形成了价格静区，金价存在日内上涨的动能。考虑到布拉德毕竟有政策投票权，对金价仍有一定的压制效果，因此<b>日内交易策略以突破跟随为主，关注金价上穿</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">1980</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">静区上沿的做多机会。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">入场时机可以配合半小时级别的</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">CCI</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">趋势指标突破</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">+100</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">线的多头信号。如果日内金价向下突破，则需要等待价格抵达</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">1965</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">关键支撑后，再行入场多单。短线金价仍以看涨为主，空单交易者可以等待价格抵达</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">2000</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">或</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">2050</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">大关，配合上消息面与反转技术信号进行入场。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
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