【ACY证券】经济衰退降临，熊市接踵而至？央行是否救市才是关键
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">连续一个月的下跌行情已经让不少投资者对价格下跌有些麻木了，如何避险是目前市场中谈论最多的话题。然而传统的避险工具，例如黄金与债券，都早失去了避险功能，反而在美元的强势压迫下比很多风险资产跌得更快。以<b>黄金为例，在短短的一个月的时间里，金价已经从每盎司</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">2000</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">美元跌至</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">1800</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">美元</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">，可真是“飞流直下三千尺，疑似银河落九天”。现在的避险与风险资产可谓是难兄难弟，价格跌势齐头并进实属罕见。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">随着泡沫持续破裂，网络上对“衰退”一词的搜索量近期大幅飙升，越来越多的投资者开始担心经济衰退下的熊市风险。但事实上，<b>经济衰退和资产下滑并没有短线的必然联系</b>，<b>其中还有央行做着中间人。</b>就拿</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">4</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">月底美国发布一季度</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">GDP</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">负增长后股市当天的表现来看，美国三大股指不跌反涨，美元反而见顶回落。这足以说明经济衰退对货币政策的影响远超过资产市场。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">今日早盘，国内发布了多项经济数据，工业产出同比</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">-2.9%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">，零售销售同比</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">-11.1%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">，失业率</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">6.1%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">，数据表现均弱于预期。而国内对此早有预期，<b>央行在下调利率的同时，还延续了借贷便利与逆回购等宽松政策，恒生与</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">A50</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">的底部形态值得投资者关注。</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></b></span></p><p><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202205/17/093158i3nnzxoznqvo8v8j.jpg<br></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="mso-no-proof:yes">
</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">CHINA50</span></i><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">一小时图</span></i><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">从</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">A50</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">小时图来看，在经济数据发布后，指数连续两个大幅下滑，甚至连带澳洲与欧美股指同时走弱。考虑到市场对数据的弱表现有一定的预期，属于测试类消息面。因此目前需要关注的便是指数能否在关键支撑站稳，一旦站稳，便有了中短线看涨的机会。<b>现价下方的关键位置主要看</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">13000</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">整数位大关，该位置还是斐波那契</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">0.5</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">回调线，有着较强的反向多头力量。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">再下方的支撑则要看</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">12700</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">的前低点附近。多单入场需要耐心等待价格底部成型，适合中线投资者关注。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202205/17/093258o02oz28eprg30buf.jpg<br></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="mso-no-proof:yes">
</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">XAUUSD</span></i><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">四小时图</span></i><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">不过从短线来看，资产贬值难以扭转，尤其是贵金属，下跌空间还有不少的余留。从黄金四小时图来看，</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">200</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">均线稳定向下，</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">OBV</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">能量潮指标持续下行，空头趋势非常稳定。不过在美国</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">4</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">月底较差的数据发布后，黄金价格的确有所反弹，呈现水平震荡。整体来看，<b>交易策略应该以短线逢高做空为主，关注</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">1830</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">和</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">1850</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">两个位置的阻力效果</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">。空头突破行情则要看</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">1800</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">大关，一旦突破这个位置，金价下一个支撑就要看</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">1700</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">位置。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">今日关注数据</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0cm;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">17:00<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;
mso-color-alt:windowtext">欧元区</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">3</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">月贸易帐</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0cm;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">20:30 </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">加拿大</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">3</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">月批发销售月率</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0cm;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">20:30 </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">美国</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">5</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">月纽约联储制造业指数</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0cm;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
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mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family:
"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0cm;line-height:normal;vertical-align:
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0cm;line-height:normal;vertical-align:
baseline"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
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"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: "Segoe UI", sans-serif;"></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0cm;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
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