【ACY证券】耶伦再提释放战略库存，油价应声下跌不破牛市
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b style=""><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">纵观整个金融市场，唯有原油价格涨势稳定，其他几乎所有的商品或多或少都受到美元涨跌的影响。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">然而就在昨晚，油价遭遇了一周来最大的打击，</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">WTI</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">原油直接从每桶</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">112</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">美元跌至</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">106</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">美元。除了受到美元的反弹的利空以外，还有多个消息面令油价承压。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">美国财长耶伦的讲话无疑是昨晚万众瞩目的焦点。在提及市场避险美元走强之后，美元便随即开始大幅上涨，可见耶伦对市场的强大影响力。<b>耶伦在讲话中还表示，释放石油战略库存能够稳定汽油价格，同时希望帮助欧洲摆脱对俄罗斯能源的依赖。</b>释放战略库存一直是控制油价的短线政策工具，在过去数月里，美国已经释放了上亿桶石油战略库存。然而从结果上来看，在短线下跌后，油价总能稳步反弹维持涨势，这是由于<b>战略库存无法扭转原油长期的供需错位问题，油价的牛市并没被打破。</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></b></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""><b></b></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">就在耶伦讲话之后，<b>欧盟方面发布了一份投资计划，希望用</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">3000</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">亿欧元在未来几年逐渐摆脱对俄罗斯能源的依赖，并借机向清洁能源转型。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">这项计划看似能够改变原油长线的供需问题，但仍有很大的不确定性。首先，在向清洁能源转型的过程中，必然导致传统能源投入不足，反而加剧了供需不平衡；其次，通过近期俄罗斯出口数据来看，原油产出不降反增，亚洲需求弥补了欧洲制裁。即便欧盟摆脱依赖，油价是否能大幅回调仍是未知数。<b>单从今年来看，原油仍处在基本面与技术面的双重牛市当中。</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></b></span></p><p><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202205/19/153253rxjxkhlkb24kh8dh.jpg<br></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="mso-no-proof:yes">
</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">USWTI</span></i><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">四小时图</span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">从</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">WTI</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">原油四小时图来看，</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">200</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">均线水平震荡，有扭头向上的趋势；</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">K</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">线处在上升通道当中，油价的底部已经呈现，技术面支撑力量较强。<b>由于消息面复杂、美元往复震荡，因此近期油价的波动性极高。交易策略应该尽量以波段逢低做多为主</b>，入场时机可以配合随机指标与布林带的信号。现价已经触及布林带下沿，并形成长下影线，同时随机指标在超卖区形成金叉信号，属于强看涨形态。因此在</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">106.5</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">附近有日内强支撑力量。再下方的支撑则要看趋势线与前低点共同结构，也就是</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">100</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">的整数位大关。油价的中线看涨格局是目前市场中最值得关注的交易机会。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">今日关注数据</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0cm;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">19:30 </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">欧洲央行公布</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">4</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">月货币政策会议纪要</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0cm;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">20:30 </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">美国当周初请失业金人数</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0cm;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
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