【ACY证券】炒作全球性经济衰退，警惕黄金的看涨陷阱
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">随着越来越多的投资人开始担心全球性的经济衰退，脑袋中的避险开关被触发，令本周的行情稍显突兀。我们最近一直在说，不管是什么资产，价格都是跟着美元的涨跌来走。但分析最近几个交易日市场的走势，在美元汇率决堤的大环境下，美国股市却是多头不足空头有余，价格反弹受到了压制。与此同时，</span><b style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">黄金却一反先前的颓势，价格连续大涨，引领整个大宗商品板块集体反弹。</b><span style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;">这是否说明黄金的强势期已经到来，值得长线投资者入场？</span></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202205/24/162233b5gufgffa6gm36g6.jpg<br></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="mso-no-proof:yes"><span style="font-size:16.5px;">
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-no-proof:yes">首先需要关注的是市场中的加息预期，金价之所以大幅回调，主要原因便是美联储计划快速加息，从而引发资产价格全面贬值。因此市场对加息的预期会直接影响到金价走势。不过<b>从最近的掉期市场表现来看，预期中位数仍保持在年内加息</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-no-proof:yes">11</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-no-proof:yes">码，并没有明显的变动。</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-no-proof:yes"></span></b></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202205/24/162358bddl6q9ltqltn8db.jpg<br></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-no-proof:yes"><span style="font-size:16.5px;">
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-no-proof:yes">与此同时，美国</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-no-proof:yes">10</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-no-proof:yes">年期抗通胀债券收益率有见顶迹象，</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-no-proof:yes">10</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-no-proof:yes">年期与</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-no-proof:yes">2</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-no-proof:yes">年期名义利差持续下滑，这说明近期驱动金价上涨的并非是短期加息，而是<b>市场对长期经济的不看好所导致的金价反弹。</b>这就回到了最初的问题，美联储会选择控制通胀还是保护经济。最近美联储的态度其实已经非常明确，即便冒着经济</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-no-proof:yes">“</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-no-proof:yes">硬着陆</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-no-proof:yes">”</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-no-proof:yes">的风险，也需要快速控制住薪资涨幅，以避免造成通胀螺旋上涨。由此可见，<b>金价近一周的反弹没有基本面支撑，涨势无法持久，空头仍然占据主导地位，中线仍然以逢高做空为主。</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-no-proof:yes"></span></b></span></p><p><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202205/24/162145e7jw2cu7914757s1.jpg<br></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="mso-no-proof:yes">
</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">XAUUSD</span></i><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">周线图</span></i><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">从黄金周线图来看，金价已经连续四周下跌，在跌至</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">1800</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">整数位大关口开始大幅反弹。这个位置恰好是趋势线位置，存在短线技术面支撑效果。不过从长线来看，金价的总跌幅其实并不大，还未抵达关键支撑。因此<b>对于中线交易者而言，需要关注金价下穿趋势线后的跟随做空机会。</b>现价下方的第一目标为应该看</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">1680</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">前低点与多重斐波那契回调线的共同结构。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202205/24/162137w27y02ll015kxwkw.jpg<br></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="mso-no-proof:yes">
</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">XAUUSD</span></i><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">一小时图</span></i><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">从黄金小时图来看，昨日美元持续下滑，金价受到利好，但在</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">1865</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">位置受到空头压制，这个位置恰好是短线</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">0.382</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">回调线位置，说明黄金的技术面阻力有效。考虑到美元近期的动荡，黄金价格存在短线逢高做空的机会。指标方面，</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">MACD</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">即将形成高位死叉形态，随机指标保持开口回归中心区域，释放强利空信号。因此<b>日内需要关注金价下穿</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">1845</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">的跟随机会。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">再上方的阻力则要看多重回调线</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">1900</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">整数位大关，可以采用倒金字塔形态进行分批入场。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">今日关注数据</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0cm;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">16:00 </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">欧元区</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">5</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">月制造业</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">PMI</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0cm;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">18:00 </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">英国</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">5</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">月零售销售差值</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0cm;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">21:45 </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">美国</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">5</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">月</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">Markit</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">制造业与服务业</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">PMI</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0cm;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">22:00 </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">美国</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">4</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">月新屋销售总数年化</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
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