【ACY证券】俄油禁令加剧经济风险，油价突破阻碍牛市乍现
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">要说近期足以颠覆整个金融市场的事件，除了美联储加息以外，就要数俄罗斯与乌克兰之间的战争风波。不过俄乌战争本身对金融市场的影响力有限，真正影响市场的是俄罗斯与西方的对立关系。就在昨天，<b>欧盟经过数周的会议，终于就俄油禁令达成了共识，称将会立即覆盖三分之二欧盟从俄罗斯进口的石油。</b>至于之前一直持反对态度的匈牙利，欧盟考虑到其内陆国家非常依赖俄油的特点，因此建议暂时不限制匈牙利的输油管。<b>受到能源禁令的影响，</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">WTI</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">原油价格近一周来强势上涨，从每桶</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">110</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">美元一路涨至</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">116</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">美元。</span></b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">从大局来看，欧盟禁止俄罗斯能源势在必行。目前西方的态度非常明确，首先是避免战争扩大，其次是对俄罗斯实施经济打击，迫使战争停止。反观俄罗斯方面，作为战争的始作俑者，必然有需要达成的战略目的。因此对俄经济打击必然会取其要害，否则欧盟只会被拖进战争的泥潭。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">就像欧盟依赖俄罗斯石油一样，俄罗斯的经济也是直接建立在能源出口上的。想要阻止战争，欧盟唯一且必要的手段就是联合起来禁止俄能源出口。<b>因此不管谈判有多艰难，对欧洲经济有多大的影响，能源禁令都会被不断推动往前走。</b>现在的欧盟政圈已经将“反俄”作为“政治正确”，所有西方国家都被捆绑在同一架巨大的马车上，慢慢驶向未知的经济旋涡。总结来说还是一句话，<b>战争持续的越久，全球的经济衰退便会越严重。</b></span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202205/31/162514zzxxp6wxabklbvlx.jpg<br></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="mso-no-proof:yes">
</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">USWTI</span></i><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">四小时图</span></i><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">能源禁令也必然会进一步加剧国际能源的供需失衡，长线支撑原油高价。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">即便欧盟对能源禁令仍有很多细节没有结论，但断供下的全球囤货需求仍会持续推高油价。从</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">WTI</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">原油四小时图来看，受到禁令影响，油价大幅度上涨，恰逢美元回调，牛市行情乍现。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">200</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">均线加速上扬，</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">K</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">线上穿上升通道上沿，</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">OBV</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">能量潮指标同时上升没有见顶，<b>整体来看，原油处在典型的多头局势当中。</b>要知道，即使在美元最强势的时期，油价仍然表现出色，由此可见，原油的多头支撑非常强劲。<b>不过考虑到欧盟内部分歧以及美元可能震荡，交易策略仍然以逢低做多为主。</b>日内支撑在</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">115.4</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">，短线支撑在</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">112</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">趋势线位置，再下方则要看</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">110</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">以及</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">105</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">附近。油价长线目标位置可以看</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">125</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">和</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">140</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">关口。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></p>
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"Microsoft YaHei""></span></b></span></p>
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"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">17:00 </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">欧元区</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">5</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">月</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
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"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0cm;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
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