【ACY证券】美联储加息预期拔高至15码，美元暴涨唯独日元抗压
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">就在上周的外汇市场走势分析中，我们提前预判了欧洲决议与美国通胀发布后的美元大涨行情。然而美元的涨势并没有就此打住，反而在昨日扩大的涨幅，<b>美元指数时隔一个月重回</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">105</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">大关。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">美元连续三日反弹也导致了资产价格再度崩盘，即便是强势的中概股和能源股这次也没能抗住压力，吐出过去一个月中近一半的涨幅。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202206/14/151837h7aa672h5zxo921v.jpg<br></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="mso-no-proof:yes">
</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">其实在最近两周，我们一直在反复强调一点，不管是做什么投资都需要等待价格回调，原因就在于美元可能在决议发布前大幅度蹿升。而做出如此判断的依据是基于高通胀难以控制。<b>当市场看到美国</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">8.6%</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">的超预期通胀后，便会意识到以现在的加息速度，根本无法控制物价暴涨。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">因此对未来加息的预期也在瞬间拔高。从掉期市场来看，加息中位数在从上周四的</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">11</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">码爆涨至</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">15</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">码，可见越来越多的人抛弃了“通胀暂时论”。恰逢美国本周即将发布新一轮利率决议，<b>有媒体称，美联储正在考虑加息</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">75</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">个基点。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">无疑触动了市场敏感的神经，从而为美元上涨提供了新的动力。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202206/14/151906gs2bnipnbpcc6cbw.jpg<br></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="mso-no-proof:yes">
</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">从恐慌与贪婪指数来看，近期指数才刚有所好转，又再度回到极度恐慌的水平。这种恐慌情绪正在市场中快速蔓延，看衰经济的声音此起彼伏。快速且大幅度的加息已然获得了市场的共识，大量投资人逐渐失去信心，开始大规模抛售资产逃离危机。不过对于金融市场而言，共识往往并非是一个准确信号。<b>所谓“别人恐惧我贪婪”，从有效市场假说的角度来看，当所有人都认可一件事情时，这件事便无法对价格产生影响。</b><span style="mso-bookmark:
_Hlk106108478"></span>而快速加息恰恰是最受市场关注，同时也是最容易通过预期影响市场的事件。因此<b>本周很可能会出现美元见顶回落，资产见底反弹的行情，尤其需要关注美联储发布决议后市场的反向爆发行情。</b></span></span><span lang="EN-AU"> </span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202206/14/151952nzme0ypa3bzwu3bm.jpg<br></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">USDJPY</span></i><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">一小时图</span></i><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">从美日货币对一小时图来看，<b>在其他直盘货币汇率都在随美元大涨的情况下，美日的表现却异常突出。</b>从</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">6</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">月</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">9</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">日开始，美日便在高位震荡，并没有像美加那样单边大涨。这说明受到股市抛售影响，作为避险货币的日元抗住了美元的压力。需要注意，从大局来看，日本糟糕的经济环境导致政策无法像其他发达国家那样做出快速政策转向，超高负债率降低货币的长期信用，日元仍有不小的压力。因此美日货币对以短空长多（或长平）为主。<b>从短线来看，美日的确有小幅度回调的空间，存在逢高做空的机会，不排除美日本周突破后继续下跌的可能。</b>现价上方的关键阻力在前高点附近，也就是</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">134.5-135</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">的供给区间。现价下方的支撑在</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">133.7</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">的趋势线与</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">132.3-133</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">的涨平涨中继形态附近。入场采用左侧交易，配合随机指标超买区死叉，判断入场时机。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
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"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">4</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">月</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">GDP</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">月率</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
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