【ACY证券】同样是经济衰退，为何一个收涨一个收跌？
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">最近的行情用一句话来总结就是，</span><b style=""><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">经济衰退加息放缓，黄金与美股同涨，美元与商品反向，成长板块表现最强，唯独油价不堪重负。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">然而昨晚在美市开盘后，市场却并没有遵循上述规律。美元探底后小幅回升，美国三大股指冲高回落最终收跌，罗素</span></span>2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">000</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">指数反而大幅收涨，金价与油价同步上涨。这种完全背离的行情在过去数月中并不多见。对于长线投资者而言，完全可以忽略这部分波动，但对于短线交易者来说，必须理解背后的含义。</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">经济衰退对市场有两方面影响，分别是加息预期放缓以及实际需求下滑。加息预期是目前主导市场大局的关键，也是形成上述规律的主因。而实际需求，看似对金融市场有着最直接的影响，实则不然。这就好比在疫情期间，全球股市不顾需求下滑，始终保持上涨趋势；直到美联储开始讨论加息，涨势才被终结。不过需求下滑短线还是有很大的影响力，油价便是受此影响大幅下跌。</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">而对于股市来说，实际需求下滑其实就是所谓的</span></span>“杀业绩”。昨日之所以出现纳指开盘后大跌，罗素2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">000</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">却收涨，关键在于盘前发布的英伟达公司财报。</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">财报显示，英伟达的游戏芯片（笔记本和游戏机）销量大幅度下降，给出的理由便是市场不好，需求下滑。</span></span> </span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">这种典型的</span></span>“杀业绩”消息令与之紧密相关的纳指大幅下跌，反而对罗素2<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">000</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">影响不大，黄金与原油更是毫不相关。由此可见，</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">经济衰退的消息面（例如经济数据、财报或官员表态等）需要分情况讨论。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202208/09/145940rsrsvu5kolnotsxo.jpg<br></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">那么对于交易者而言，如何区分加息与需求对股市的影响？可以关注美国</span></span>2年期和1</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">0</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">年期国债的收益率表现。</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">2年期美债利率代表美国加息的预期幅度</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">，利率上升说明加息预期上升，股票与债券价格将同时下跌；反之亦然。而</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">1</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">0</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">年与</span></span>2年期美债利差则代表了实际需求</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">，利差约下跌，业绩便越差。值得注意的是，需求和加息本就相互影响，需求过低就需要降息进行调节，因此主导市场局势的还是加息预期。</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">从中长线市场表现来看，不管是财报、能源危机还是战争，都没有货币政策来的直接有效。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202208/09/150012lz5lo5n2m0hmq0o5.jpg<br></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">明日即将发布美国通胀数据，上一次发布的</span></span>9</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">.1</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">%CPI数据中有一半来源于上涨了6</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">0</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">%的汽油价格。考虑到近一个月美国汽油价格大跌2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">0</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">%。</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">明日的</span></span>CPI同比可能比预期更低，交易者还是可以对美国成长板块进行短线布局，尤其是对“杀业绩”不敏感的罗素2</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">000</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">指数</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">（简单来说，市盈率越高，越不容易受到当前财报影响）。</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202208/09/150051la90xcwpzuclg00c.jpg<br></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;"><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">US2000四小时图</span></i><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></i></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">从罗素</span></span>2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">000</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">四小时图来看，可以说是在全球所有股指中近一个月涨势最稳定的指数。</span></span>2<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">00</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">均线转向上行，趋势斜率较大。</span></span>K线在1<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">920</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">的长期底部颈线位置稍作停留后形成突破局势，交易策略应该采用顺势做多为主。考虑到加息预期的波动，指数存在日内回调压力。短线交易者可以等待明日通胀数据发布，如果数据远低于预期，便有了入场做多的机会。</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">中长线投资者则可以等待价格向上突破</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">1950</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">关口，配合</span></span>CCI趋势指标再度上传+</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">100</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">线的多头信号，提高入场的胜率。</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></b></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">今日关注数据</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></b></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">18</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">:</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">00 </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">美国</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">7</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">月小型企业信心指数</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">联系我们</span></b><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><span style="font-family: " segoe="" ui";"=""></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">电话：</span></span>167 4049 5509（中国）</span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><span style="font-family: " segoe="" ui";"=""></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">1300 729 171（澳大利亚）</span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><span style="font-family: " segoe="" ui";"=""></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">QQ： 8008 83691 </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><span style="font-family: " segoe="" ui";"=""></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">微信：</span></span>acyau2011</span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><span style="font-family: " segoe="" ui";"=""></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">官网：</span><span class="17" style="font-family: 微软雅黑; color: rgb(0, 0, 255);">https://www.acy.com.au</span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><span style="font-family: " segoe="" ui";"=""></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">邮箱：</span><span class="17" style="font-family: 微软雅黑; color: rgb(0, 0, 255);">[email protected]</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span><span style="font-family: " segoe="" ui";"=""></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><span style="font-family: " segoe="" ui";"=""></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: " segoe="" ui";"=""> </span><span style="font-family: " segoe="" ui";"=""></span><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202208/09/150119ewwdlwzdgjdiqpzd.jpg<br></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><span style="font-family: " segoe="" ui";"=""></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">免责声明：</span></b><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><span style="font-family: " segoe="" ui";"=""></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">本文内容由第三方提供。</span></span>ACY证券对文中内容的准确性和完整性，不做任何声明或保证；由第三方的建议，预测或其他信息导致了投资损失，ACY证券不承担任何责任。本文内容不构成任何投资建议，与个人投资目标，财务状况或需求无关。如有任何疑问，请您咨询独立专业的财务或税务的意见。ACY Securities Pty Ltd（AFSL 403863）受澳大利亚证券投资委员会授权和监管。</span><i><span class="16" style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></i></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><i><span class="15" style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span></i></span></span></span></p>
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