【ACY证券】今晚或将成为通胀转折点，白银比黄金更具投资价值
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">今晚即将发布美国</span></span><span style="font-size:16.5px;">7月CPI通胀数据，至关重要。在过去一个月中，美国汽油的价格下滑了2</span><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">0</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">%，各类粮食大宗商品同样价格大跌。因此</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">今晚的</span></span>CPI极有可能同比大幅降低，而这部分跌幅已经被市场接纳，纳入市价当中。</span></span></b></span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;">对通胀回落的预期已经令黄金与股市见底反弹，美元则见顶回落。</span></span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">即便如此，</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">只要</span></span>CPI同比公布值低于</span></span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">8</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">%，整个市场便将延续过去一个月的趋势。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">这就好比</span></span>7月2<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">8</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">日晚间发布美国</span></span>GDP数据，即便已经有相当一部分市场预期环比负增长，但当数据发布后，金融市场依旧沿着衰退路径前行，并没有像利率决议那样出现反向波动。其中的理由非常简单，就是因为数据太过重要，是市场的转折点，消息面动能强劲。<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">不过最近很多机构都在泼冷水，在承认通胀见顶的同时，却认为核心</span></span>CPI仍将保持增长<b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">要知道，核心</span></span>CPI正好将跌的最凶的食品与汽油剔除在外，的确可能出现通胀见顶，但核心CPI却上涨的反常现象。因此<b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">今晚需要格外注意核心通胀的走向</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">，</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">如果数据低于前值的</span></span>5</span></span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">.9</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">%，那么就是短线利好资产市场的强信号。</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></b></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202208/10/152549f0lf331nx1l3d15n.jpg<br></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">一旦核心通胀环比下滑，美联储有极大的可能，会按照</span></span>5<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">0</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">/</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">25</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">/</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">25</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">基点的路径完成下半年的加息。</span></span> 不说远的，就说9月份加息，目前押注7<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">5</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">基点的交易员远多于</span></span>5<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">0</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">基点，加息预期还有很大的回调空间。也就是说，包括贵金属、股票与外汇在内的多数商品还有很大的升值空间。不过</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">考虑到最近芯片股不断杀业绩，股市的短线波动性较大，因此贵金属有更好的看涨机会。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">尤其考虑到台海军事演习、特朗普被</span></span>“抄家”、俄欧风险蔓延等地缘政治风险，避险需求将持续提供贵金属价格的底部支撑。<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202208/10/152611z7fxehchcaeqer7a.jpg<br></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;"><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">XAGUSD一小时图</span></i><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></i></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">在贵金属投资选择中，需要关注白银的投资机会。</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">最近金银比从</span></span>7月中旬的9</span></span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">1</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">的高位回落，目前在</span></span>8</span></span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">7</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">倍左右，还是远高于长线均衡值</span></span>6</span></span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">5</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">因此在价格反弹过程中，白银的涨幅将高于黄金。从白银一小时图来看，中短线价格趋势已经由跌转涨，</span></span>2<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">00</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">均线稳定向上提供支撑。</span></span>K线本周向上突破了2<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">0</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">整数位关口以及</span></span>2<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">0.4</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">前高点阻力，四小时图</span></span>CCI趋势指标上穿后回落，多头突破的动能较强。短线交易可以关注2<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">0.3</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">附近的回踩机会提前入场，或是等待通胀数据发布，如果</span></span>K线突破前高点<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">20.75</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">，同时四小时</span></span>CCI指标上穿+<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">100</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">线，便是不错的中短线做多机会。上方阻力位置较远，在</span></span>2<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">的长期支撑转阻力水平线上。</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">今日关注数据</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></b></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">20</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">:</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">30 </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">美国</span></span>7月CPI年率<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">0</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">:</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">30 </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">美国</span></span>7月核心CPI年率<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">2:30 </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">美国当周</span></span>EIA原油库存<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">3</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">:</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">00 </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">美联储多位官员发表讲话</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">联系我们</span></b><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><span style="font-family: " segoe="" ui";"=""></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">电话：</span></span>167 4049 5509（中国）<span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><span style="font-family: " segoe="" 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style="font-size:16.5px;">本文内容由第三方提供。</span></span>ACY证券对文中内容的准确性和完整性，不做任何声明或保证；由第三方的建议，预测或其他信息导致了投资损失，ACY证券不承担任何责任。本文内容不构成任何投资建议，与个人投资目标，财务状况或需求无关。如有任何疑问，请您咨询独立专业的财务或税务的意见。ACY Securities Pty Ltd（AFSL 403863）受澳大利亚证券投资委员会授权和监管。</span></span></span><i><span class="15" style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></i></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p>
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