【ACY证券】美元跟随通胀跳水，日元成为最佳搭档
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">在昨晚美国通胀发布后，整个市场又回到美元贬值的趋势当中，终结了非农的反向波动。即便昨晚美联储两位官员相继发表鹰派观点，也没能改变资产市场的看涨情绪。</span><b style=""><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">在美元跳水的环境下，不管是大宗商品还是全球股指均进入到牛市当中，而这种趋势很可能延续至</span></span>9月中旬。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">目前市场对美联储</span></span>9月份决议的加息押注在<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">50</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">和</span></span>7<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">5</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">基点之间摇摆不定，外汇、股市与大宗商品的牛市行情各不相同，如何挑选资产类别非常关键。</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span class="16" style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span class="16" style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">中短线来看，并非所有金融商品都有较大的升值空间。就拿纳指来说，看似短线涨势凶猛，但由于近期的财报利空，指数正在承受一定的空头卖压。与此同时，</span></span>Gamestop等散户热门股股价本周再度暴涨，说明</span><b><span class="16" style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">市场中贪婪情绪死灰复燃，并非是长期投资的看涨信号。</span></b><span class="16" style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">因此，虽然美国三大股指的确有短线做多机会，但现在就说长线牛市还为时尚早。</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span class="16" style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span class="16" style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">要说美元贬值下的外汇交易，关键就要看日元。在主流货币中，日元最近的升值幅度远超过其他货币。有朋友可能会奇怪，即便美元见顶，所有其他货币升值；那最强的也应该是欧元，再怎样都轮不到日元。毕竟欧洲央行已经首次加息，而日本央行却始终维持着强势宽松的态度。其实，并非因为日元太强，而是欧元太弱。</span><b><span class="16" style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">在难以想象的天然气与电费价格威胁下，市场看不到欧洲经济未来的希望。因此即便央行大举加息，也没有人看好欧元长线的发展。</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></b></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">相比之下，日本央行的坚决宽松态度已经完全反应在过去</span></span>6个月的市场当中（日元兑美元在此期间贬值了超过2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">0</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">%）。最近正好碰上日本内阁改组以及安倍刺杀事件，为市场平添了一份变数，并给予日元多头入场的借口。可以这么理解，目前市场对日本央行年内加息的预期是0%，而这部分已经纳入市价当中，即便央行继续表达鸽派态度，概率已经不会更低了。反而一旦市场出现变数，加息概率从0%涨到1%，日元便会随之升值。整体来看，</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">做多日元（做空美日）属于右偏分布的交易机会（胜率远大于败率）。</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></b><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202208/11/150617euo0o0fj9oyz79cw.jpg<br></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;text-align:center;vertical-align:baseline;"><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">USDJPY四小时图</span></i><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></i></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">从美日四小时图来看，美国的通胀与非农数据对美日汇率影响极大。不过相比澳美、纽美，美日的趋势不算稳定，更多受到消息面的影响。</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">200</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">均线出现拐点水平震荡，方向未定，短线更有可能出现震荡行情。考虑到美元见顶基本面震荡看跌，交易策略应该采用逢高做空为主。</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">今晚将公布美国</span></span>PPI数据，很可能会低于预期，或提供美日汇率新的看跌动能。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">现价上方的关键支撑在前高点供给区</span></span>1<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">34.5</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">-</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">135.5</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">区间附近，再上方则要看</span></span>1<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">35.8</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">和</span></span>1<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">37.5</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">的头部颈线位置，可以配合左侧交易的盈亏比设置。下方支撑则要看</span></span>1<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">33</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">和</span></span>1<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">31</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">的震荡区域。</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">今日关注数据</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></b></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">1</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">6:00 IEA</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">公布月度原油市场报告</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">0</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">:</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">30 </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">美国当周初请失业金人数</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">0</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">:</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">30 </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">美国</span></span>7月PPI月率</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">:</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">30 </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">美国当周</span></span>EIA天然气库存</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">待定</span></span> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">OPEC公布月度原油市场报告</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">联系我们</span></b><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><span style="font-family: " segoe="" ui";"=""></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">电话：</span></span>167 4049 5509（中国）</span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><span style="font-family: " segoe="" ui";"=""></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">1300 729 171（澳大利亚）</span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><span style="font-family: " segoe="" ui";"=""></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">QQ： 8008 83691 </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><span style="font-family: " segoe="" ui";"=""></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">微信：</span></span>acyau2011</span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><span style="font-family: " segoe="" ui";"=""></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">官网：</span><span class="15" style="font-family: 微软雅黑; color: rgb(0, 0, 255);">https://www.acy.com.au</span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><span style="font-family: " segoe="" ui";"=""></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">邮箱：</span><span class="15" style="font-family: 微软雅黑; color: rgb(0, 0, 255);">[email protected]</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span><span style="font-family: " segoe="" ui";"=""></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><span style="font-family: " segoe="" ui";"=""></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: " segoe="" ui";"=""> </span><span style="font-family: " segoe="" ui";"=""></span><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202208/11/150637urvjut6dd2rugv6h.jpg<br></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><span style="font-family: " segoe="" ui";"=""></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">免责声明：</span></b><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><span style="font-family: " segoe="" ui";"=""></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">本文内容由第三方提供。</span></span>ACY证券对文中内容的准确性和完整性，不做任何声明或保证；由第三方的建议，预测或其他信息导致了投资损失，ACY证券不承担任何责任。本文内容不构成任何投资建议，与个人投资目标，财务状况或需求无关。如有任何疑问，请您咨询独立专业的财务或税务的意见。ACY Securities Pty Ltd（AFSL 403863）受澳大利亚证券投资委员会授权和监管。</span><i><span class="16" style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></i></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><i><span class="16" style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span></i></span></span></span></p>
页:
[1]