【ACY证券】板块轮动周而复始，个股投资静待佳音
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">在股市投资中经常会提及的一个词</span></span>——板块轮动。</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">板块轮动是指在不同经济条件下，十一大版块价格表现上会呈现周期性轮动的现象。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">例如在经济增长的环境下，金融周期股表现较为出色；而当经济发生衰退，便是防御股表现更为优秀。因此对于个股投资者而言，把握轮动周期选好入场时机非常关键。金融市场中最经典的长线板块轮动分析是美林时钟理论，通过通胀的涨跌以及经济的好坏，将股市拆分成四部分进行轮动。</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202208/15/151232vu74y4ohe477aun7.jpg<br></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">不过美林时钟的长线属性并不适合中短线股民。</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">股市板块的中短线轮动更为复杂，因为其看的是市场对未来通胀与经济的预期变化。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">从今年的股市表现来看，</span></span>4月份之前，通胀与经济预期同时上升，在这个阶段周期板块表现优于成长板块；4月之后，通胀预期进一步上升，但经济预期下滑，周期板块表现持续恶化，尤其是从6月份开始，材料与能源股遭受重创，所有板块呈同比例下滑；直到7月中旬，通胀预期见顶，经济预期维持下滑，成长板块开始反超表现最佳，包括澳洲在内的股票市场进入中短线牛市。</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">考虑到之前市场对通胀的过度看涨，通胀预期在未来短时间内仍将维持震荡下滑趋势，要判断目前板块的轮动，就需要了解市场对经济预期是否会发生转变。</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></b></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></p><p><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202208/15/151312onuycnjnx2hzgtzg.jpg<br></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">通过汽油与原油期货价格走势可以观察到市场对未来经济的判断。在过去两个月中，更接近需求端的汽油价格下滑</span></span>2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">0</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">%，而原油期货价格下跌近3</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">0</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">%。排除供给端因素，但从需求方面来看，经济下滑已经对油价产生了实际影响。美国原油裂解价差近一个月来持续下滑，同时EIA原油库存连续超过预期，说明</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">不管是实际还是预期经济仍处在下滑阶段。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">在这种条件下，就业市场很可能即将受到负面影响，周期板块仍会承受一定压力，而成长板块整体表现更优。</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">不过就澳洲市场来看，考虑到财报季以及估值的影响，短线材料与能源板块仍有利多反弹的动力</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">。</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202208/15/151331k4jtxl0znnx6lm5l.jpg<br></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;"><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">BHP日线图</span></i><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></i></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">BHP作为澳洲最大市值的材料股，其市盈率目前却低于行业平均值。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">明日早盘即将发布年报，目前市场对财报数据普遍看好。</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">即便存在全球衰退风险，但短线存在利空出尽的看涨动能。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">从</span></span>BHP日线图来看，现价正处在长线趋势线与水平线支撑位置，考虑到美元已经开始回落，股价的确有见底的可能。短线价格正处在3</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">6</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">-</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">39.5</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">的前低点震荡区域，存在突破后跟随做多的机会。需要关注明日财报发布后股价的走势，如果能够站上</span></span>4<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">0</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">关口，便释放了短线多单入场的信号。长线来看，</span></span>OBV能量潮指标水平震荡，还未出现上涨趋势。考虑到计划收购OZ<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">Minerals的利空影响，投资者还是可以等待派息后股价回调结束，再行入场多单。</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">今日关注数据</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></b></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">20</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">:</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">30 </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">美国</span></span>8月纽约联储制造业指数</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">:</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">00 </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">美国</span></span>8月NAHB房产市场指数</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">联系我们</span></b><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><span style="font-family: " segoe="" 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