【ACY证券】全球股市同涨同跌，如何分散投资降低风险？
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">本周美元的反弹有些许反常，一般来说，美元会跟随美联储加息预期同涨同跌，这也是我们最近观察到的普遍现象。但最近两天，</span></span>9月加息概率持续从7</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">5</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">基点跌向</span></span>5<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">0</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">基点，目前押注</span></span>5<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">0</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">基点的概率已经达到</span></span>6<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">1</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">%，但</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">美元却没有下跌反而大幅冲高。反常的是，美国、欧洲与澳洲股市也在同时上涨，而包括黄金在内的大宗商品却是全面下滑。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">这种背离行情并不常见，金融市场的行情趋势还是以美元贬值为主要方向。</span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">我们从时间点上难以判断反常行情的原因。单从主流市场观点来看，可能与国内的消息有关。根据昨日官方发布的数据显示，</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">中国</span></span>7月消费品零售总额与工业增长率远低于市场预期，甚至不如6月份前值。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">如此糟糕的数据打破了市场对解封之后国内经济的普遍看好，疫情的反弹与房地产危机对经济活动造成严重冲击。而为了刺激经济，</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">人民银行同日将逆回购与</span></span>MLF利率下调1</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">0</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">个基点，与发达国家的政策紧缩背道而驰。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">昨日发布的经济数据与货币政策或是引发最近金融市场反向行情的重要原因。不过考虑到对经济恶化的预期已经体现在价格当中，同时美国股市存在过热现象，投资者可能需要对组合进行调整，分散发达国家股市的系统性风险。</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></b></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">第一个分散的工具是中国</span></span>A</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">50</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">指数（或恒生指数）。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">在全球市场中，与美国股市相关系数最低的就要数中国的债券与股票，尤其在美国股指二季度大跌时，中国股市表现得更为优异。同时考虑到</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">“经济越差，股市越好”的逻辑（开始降息），中国A</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">50</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">是分散澳洲与美国股市风险的最佳选择。</span></b><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202208/16/150934xcie6arxda6ry3zu.jpg<br></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;"><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">China</span></i><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">50</span></i><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">一小时图</span></i><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></i></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">从</span></span>A</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">50</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">指数小时图来看，受昨日消息面影响，指数大涨大跌，但最终几乎收平。今日早盘更是稳步上涨，</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">走势与标普指数截然不同，因此适合用于分散投资。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">OBV能量潮指标先一步开始上升，体现多头支撑。考虑到降息的利好，股市存在底部基本面支撑。从形态上来看，指数构建出短线底部，K线突破颈线1</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">3600</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">阻力。而</span></span>1<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">3500</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">是长线支阻互转水平线，指数在该位置受到了支撑力量。整体来看，分散投资策略可以考虑</span></span>1<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">3500</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">-</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">13600</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">区间入场，再下方的长线支撑则要看</span></span>1<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">3000</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">整数位大关。</span><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202208/16/150950lii8lk4yzvn1ikii.jpg<br></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;"><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">TLT日线图</span></i><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></i></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></b></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">另一种分散投资的工具便是美国债券，而且一定是美国长期国债才有分散风险的功能。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">从美国长端国债</span></span>ETF商品TLT日线图来看，在美联储加息过程中，指数价格持续下滑，价格表现上虽然与发达国家股指还是有一定的相关性，但是相关系数相对较低，足以作为分散投资组合的一部分。考虑到通胀见顶与加息预期回调等长线预期，虽然无法判断指数是否到达底部，但是基本面已经释放支撑反弹的信号。形态上来看1</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">12</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">-</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">120</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">是指数密集波动区域，可能是跌平涨中继形态。因此长线分散投资可以关注价格回调后的低接机会。</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">今日关注数据</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></b></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">1</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">7</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">:</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">00 </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">德国</span></span>8月经济景气指数</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">0</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">:</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">30 </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">加拿大</span></span>7月CPI月率</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">1</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">:</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">15 </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">美国</span></span>7月工业产出月率</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">联系我们</span></b><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><span style="font-family: " segoe="" ui";"=""></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">电话：</span></span>167 4049 5509（中国）</span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><span style="font-family: " segoe="" 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