【ACY证券】鲍威尔金口一开，熊市行情应声落地
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">最近投资界最关注的事件便是周五举办为期三天的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会，尤其关注美联储主席鲍威尔在会议中的讲话。目前市场行情的主题在于矛盾，包括经济数据上实际与预期的背离，欧美经济的差异，以及外部供需的变化。这些矛盾导致股票、债券与外汇市场摇摆不定，市场急需一根</span></span>“定海神针”来稳定行情波动，而这个重任被寄予在鲍威尔身上。可以说，<b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">鲍威尔一旦开口，中短线行情便可能形成趋势，重点在于是否会在衰退环境下中止或放缓加息。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">从空间上来看，目前不管是大宗商品还是股票市场都有涨跌的空间，同时</span></span>9月份加息预期也介于5<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">0</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">和</span></span>7<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">5</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">基点之间，存在不小的摇摆空间，唯独美元触及前高点</span></span>1<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">09</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">关口。如果考虑到值博率的话，</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">看跌美元的胜率相对更高，盈利空间也相对更大，而大宗商品将有更好的反弹空间。与之相反的是股市与</span></span>digit货币，上涨的概率与空间相对更小，更适合看空。</span></span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">因此如果鲍威尔明日讲话鸽派，则看跌美元看涨大宗商品；如果讲话鹰派，则看跌罗素、纳指与日经指数以及</span></span>digit货币。<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">不过回顾去年</span></span>8月底的央行年会，其实对市场的影响几乎可以忽略，不过当时的局面和目前有相似之处。当时正值美联储首次提出缩减购债规模，退出量化宽松之际，市场对9月份美联储是否会收紧的看法并不统一。从后续的行情来看，股票市场先跟随鲍威尔讲话短线上涨，随后在9月份回调，并在1<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">1</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">月份（真正开始紧缩）见顶。因此</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">目前的行情很可能也是以震荡为主，在美联储没有真正放缓加息或开始降息之前，市场还无法形成中长线趋势。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">交易策略应该以短线跟随鲍威尔讲话，中线则以高抛美元低接黄金与股市为主。</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202208/25/155740lri9ltigq9xaia0f.jpg<br></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;"><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">J</span></i><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">P225</span></i><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">日线图</span></i><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></i></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">从日经指数日线图来看，受到近期美元与股市同涨的反常行情的影响，日元贬值与股市反弹同时利好日经指数，导致指数价格突破了</span></span>2<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">8000</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">关口与下降趋势线的封锁，</span></span>K线向上大举反攻。不过2<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">00</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">均线已经保持下滑趋势，同时这部分上涨毕竟没有基本面作为支撑，因此</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">日经指数目前很可能处在高估的状态，价格下跌的概率与空间较大，看空的值博率较高。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">因此交易策略可以配合鲍威尔鹰派表态，顺势入场空单。需要配合四小时级别的</span></span>CCI趋势指标下穿-<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">100</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">线的突破信号，关注</span></span>K线下穿2<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">8000</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">的熊市信号。</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">今日关注数据</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></b></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">14</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">:</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">00 </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">德国二季度</span></span>GDP年率终值<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">1</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">9</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">:</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">30 </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">欧洲央行公布</span></span>7月货币政策会议纪要<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">0</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">:</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">30 </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">美国当周初请失业金人数</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">0</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">:</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">30 </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">美国二季度实际</span></span>GDP修正值<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">:</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">30 </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">美国当周天然气库存</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">联系我们</span></b><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><span style="font-family: " segoe="" ui";"=""></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">电话：</span></span>167 4049 5509（中国）<span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><span style="font-family: " segoe="" ui";"=""></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">1300 729 171（澳大利亚）</span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><span 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