【ACY证券】涡轮机上一个小孔，股市陷入一个大洞
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b style=""><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">自从鲍威尔</span></span></b><b style="">“惊吓”市场之后，全球几乎所有的金融商品价格在上周集体俯冲，终结了持续一个半月的反弹行情。</span></span></b></span><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">各类资产的跌幅各不相同，但基本上都在逼近</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">7</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">月中旬的低点，唯独美元保持大涨之势。不过在周五发布美国非农之后，非农数据符合预期，低于前值，令美元冲高回落，资产价格有所回暖。然而之后发生的一件事情，却再度令欧元大幅贬值导致美元扭跌为涨。</span></span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">就在非农的四个小时之后，一条新闻震惊了整个市场。</span><b style=""><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">运营</span></span>“北溪一号”的俄气公司宣布，将无限期对欧洲“断气”。</span></span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">原因是管道涡轮机有多处漏油现象，而德国西门子公司表示需要专业维修才能排除故障。此消息一出，蝴蝶效应骤起，美元飙升连带资产贬值。在短短两个小时里，美元大涨</span></span>0<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">.6</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">%；纳指大跌2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">.7</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">%；金属大宗商品集体下滑1%；同时BTC惨遭抛售，跌幅高达3%。</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">这样的行情在过去半年里并不罕见，简单来说就是，</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">美国经济越好，欧洲经济越差，则美元升值股市贬值。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">对于欧洲而言，北溪天然气管道是否通气决定这欧洲经济能否顺利度过今年年底的这场寒冬。尽管欧盟节电节能措施频出，例如减少洗澡次数，停止自动扶梯等等，民众也在积极响应，但对比目前的能源缺口，仍然是杯水车薪。</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">经济衰退正在步步逼近，这种预期也反应在金融市场中，欧洲</span></span>STOXX指数跌幅远超澳洲与美国指数。</span></span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></b></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">从消息面来看，</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">全球最大的对冲基金桥水在上个月退出绝大多数空仓后，上周又开始大规模建仓，主要头寸包括荷兰</span></span>ASML以及德国安联与拜耳。</span></span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">同时考虑到本周四欧洲即将公布利率决议，有传言称，本次决议将加息</span></span>7<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">5</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">个基点，可能会进一步导致股市下滑。因此从短线来看，做空欧洲股指的胜率相对较高。</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202209/05/160756yww466lpddl62dj7.jpg<br></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">STOXX</span></i><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">50</span></i><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">日线图</span></i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">从欧洲</span></span>STOXX指数日线图来看，指数正在接近长线支阻互转水平线3<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">400</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">整数位大关。考虑到基本面的空头局势，指数价格很可能震荡下滑或水平盘整，短线上行风险较小。</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">100</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">均线与动量指标都保持稳定向下，熊市动能较为明显。不过从大周期上来看，经济衰退之后，往往会伴随政策放缓。</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">从衰退到早期复苏之间会有一个过渡期，目前正处在过渡期的起始位置，在此期间，交易策略应该以逢高做空为主。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">现价上方的阻力主要集中在</span></span>3<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">600</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">和</span></span>3<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">800</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">两个位置，应该采用左侧交易，相应扩大盈亏比设置。可以配合小时级别的动量指标下穿零线的空头信号，提高入场胜率。</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">今日关注数据</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></b></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">16</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">:</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">30 </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">欧元区</span></span>9月Sentix投资者信心指数<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">1</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">7</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">:</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">00 </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">欧元区</span></span>7月零售销售月率<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">1</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">:</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">00 </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">OPEC产油国组织举行会议</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">联系我们</span></b><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><span style="font-family: " segoe="" ui";"=""></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">电话：</span></span>167 4049 5509（中国）<span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><span style="font-family: " segoe="" ui";"=""></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">1300 729 171（澳大利亚）</span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><span style="font-family: " segoe="" ui";"=""></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">QQ： 8008 83691 </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><span style="font-family: " segoe="" ui";"=""></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">微信：</span></span>acyau2011<span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><span style="font-family: " segoe="" ui";"=""></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">官网：</span><span class="16" style="font-family: 微软雅黑; color: rgb(0, 0, 255);">https://www.acy.com.au</span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><span style="font-family: " segoe="" ui";"=""></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">邮箱：</span><span class="16" style="font-family: 微软雅黑; color: rgb(0, 0, 255);">[email protected]</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span><span style="font-family: " segoe="" ui";"=""></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202209/05/160827ptee687lbfct7lek.jpg<br><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: " segoe="" ui";"=""> </span><span style="font-family: " segoe="" ui";"=""></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><span style="font-family: " segoe="" ui";"=""></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">免责声明：</span></b><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><span style="font-family: " segoe="" ui";"=""></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">本文内容由第三方提供。</span></span>ACY证券对文中内容的准确性和完整性，不做任何声明或保证；由第三方的建议，预测或其他信息导致了投资损失，ACY证券不承担任何责任。本文内容不构成任何投资建议，与个人投资目标，财务状况或需求无关。如有任何疑问，请您咨询独立专业的财务或税务的意见。ACY Securities Pty Ltd（AFSL 403863）受澳大利亚证券投资委员会授权和监管。<i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></i></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><span class="15" style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p>
页:
[1]