【ACY证券】换一个角度做投资，黄金与欧元相辅相成
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">在目前的市场中，不管交易或投资绝大多数金融产品，都无法避免对美元的风险敞口。</span></span>“美元涨资产跌，美元跌资产涨”，这种行情的背后不仅是美元作为计价单位的影响，还有美联储对美元与资产价格的背向推动。以金价为例，自从俄乌战争打响的3月份开始，伴随美元的不断升值，黄金跟随全球股市一同贬值。<b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">可见决定价格的并非是资产的属性而是美元的涨跌。近期的交易策略往往以美元为核心，美元见顶回落之际，往往是投资入场之时。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">然而最近美元的不确定性愈发地强烈，美联储的态度令美元大幅震荡，欧洲的危机也为美元再添一份助力。但各国政策的收敛以及美国经济的衰退同时对美元施以压力。通胀与经济纠缠，预期与现实胶葛，</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">即便美元从长线来看升值动能正在被耗尽，但短线波段动能依旧强势。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">消息面并不利于看空美元看多资产。因此目前长线投资与短线交易都不是很好做。</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">想要提高胜率，最好的方式便是对冲市场中的系统性风险，将美元的敞口进行隔离，专注于获得其他因子的回报。比如做多澳洲股指，做空欧美股指，以赚取经济上的差距；或做多澳元兑日元，赚取两国政策上的差异；又或是做多</span></span>ETH做空BTC，赚取ETH在应用上优势。这种<b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">多空策略能够有效剔除美元的影响，在提高胜率的同时，分散投资组合中的风险敞口。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">不过交易者需要注意，由于对冲了美元的波动风险，导致价格的波</span></span> 动性不足，持仓的机会成本上升，需要提高杠杆增加波动。同时由于涉及到两种商品的买卖，交易成本也会同时上升，所以需要尽量选择成本较低的商品执行策略。<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202209/06/152135afjmccyrkwkkkkcm.jpg<br></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">以黄金为例，金价与欧美汇率自</span></span>3月份便开始同涨同跌，受到美元的重点支配。想要对冲美元风险，可以做多黄金，同时做空欧元或英镑。<b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">这部分多空策略主旨是以黄金价格作为锚点，做空欧洲或英国的经济。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">考虑到最近的断气风波，欧洲经济急转直下，预期再次崩溃。因此中短线做多黄金</span></span>/欧元或黄金/英镑有更高的胜率。<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202209/06/152156g8hy6npiqy3i8h99.jpg<br></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;"><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">XAUEUR日线图</span></i><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></i></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">从黄金</span></span>/欧元日线图来看，和美元金价不同，欧元金价始终保持在上升趋势线上方。同样在抵达1<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">700</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">大关之后，欧元金价的反弹更加的稳定。长线来看，价格自</span></span>7月份起摆脱了下行通道，呈现旗形突破结构。MACD柱线此前形成明显的多重底背离形态，这波价格的反弹可能才刚刚开始。整体来看，交易策略应该采用逢低做多为主，关注现价下方1<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">700</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">关口、</span></span>2<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">00</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">均线以及上升趋势线的多重支撑效果。下支撑位置在</span></span>1<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">660</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">，而上方阻力则要看</span></span>1<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">770</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">附近。</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">今日关注数据</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></b></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">22</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">:</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">00 </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">美国</span></span>8月ISM非制造业PMI<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">联系我们</span></b><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><span 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