【ACY证券】经济衰退哪家强？高额赤字压英镑
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">美国昨日公布了</span>ISM非制造业PMI，报得5</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">6.9</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">%，高于预期与前值，象征着美国经济保持上行的趋势。从数据细节来看，四个项目数值均在荣枯线之上。除了供应端继续下滑，新订单、商业活动以及就业情况均有所改善。除了林业与艺术品外，其他板块服务业都呈现稳步增长。服务业整体库存量保持低位，与商业活动的增量错位，这与制造业有着天壤之别。与此同时，原材料与汽油价格下滑，同时纸张、汽车、电力以及劳动价格保持上升。从这份报告来看，</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">美国经济仍然保持了健康的增长，重心重新回到服务业，而服务业才是美国经济的重头戏。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">昨晚的数据无疑释放了利好经济的信号。</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">不过就在数据公布后，美元却做了一波下修，尾盘更是震荡收敛。而导致昨日美元收涨的另有其人，而这个人就是欧洲央行管委。在欧市开盘后，多位管委相继表达了对通胀与加息的看法，其中提到</span>“在广泛且持久的衰退下可能会放缓加息步伐”。此话一出，市场哗然，欧元暴跌。</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">市场对欧洲明日的加息</span>7</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">5</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">基点的押注骤然下降，全球股市也随之下滑。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">由于最近欧洲经济数据多数暴雷，例如昨日德国工厂订单表现不佳，加剧了市场对欧洲经济的恐慌情绪。</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">然而欧洲经济并非最惨的，要说惨就要说说英国。英国经济正在经历首相风波、两位数通胀、高昂的贸易逆差以及强烈的衰退预期。</span>GDP已经被印度赶超，跌落前五大经济体的神坛。</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">德意志银行周一发布的一份报告预测，英国经常帐赤字创下近</span>7</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">0</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">年来最高记录，想要恢复到平均水平，英镑必须再贬值</span>1</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">5</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">%。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">要知道一个国家的经常帐赤字体现了对本币的需求低于外币。虽然并非一定如此，但经常帐的赤字往往会对本币汇率造成巨大压力。考虑到新首相上任后的</span>1</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">300</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">亿财政刺激，英镑的价值在短时间内难以和其他主流货币匹敌，其中也包括今天央行</span>“再度”暗示紧缩的日元。</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202209/07/152109j7cldm0gll5j583f.jpg<br></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">GBPUSD一小时图</span></i><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></i></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">从镑美一小时图来看，近一个月的下跌行情异常稳定，受到趋势线和</span>2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">00</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">均线的共同阻力，呈现下降通道形态。不管是技术面还是消息面都不利好英镑的走势，不过考虑到美元最近的波动性极大，因此交易策略应该以突破做空为主，利用右侧交易的动能来提高入场胜率。突破点位主要关注现价下方</span>1</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">.145</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">的前低点关键支撑。可以配合今晚行长贝利</span>“鸽派”讲话以及欧元区经济数据 “不佳”的消息面利空，同时观察CCI趋势指标下穿-</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">100</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">线的空头信号，来提高入场胜率。</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">今日关注数据</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></b></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">17</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">:</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">00 </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">欧元区二季度</span>GDP年率终值</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">1</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">7</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">:</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">00 </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">欧元区二季度就业人数季率</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">1</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">7</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">:</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">00 </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">英国央行行长贝利发表讲话</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">:</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">00 </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">美国纽约联储全球供应链压力指数</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">:</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">00 </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">加拿大央行公布利率决议</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">3</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">:</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">55 </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">多位美联储官员相继发表讲话</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" 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