澳洲财经 发表于 2022-9-8 15:24:45

【ACY证券】超过一半投资者看空,美国股市遭遇至暗时刻

<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">今日凌晨,美国发布了</span>7月份经济景气状况褐皮书报告。需要明确的是,这份报告是描述7月份的美国经济环境,与目前的行情已经相隔一个月有余。</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">报告中的内容基本符合市场预期,释放美国经济潜在的衰退信号。</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></b></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">通篇报告中值得关注点有几个,首先是</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">对经济活动的描述从扩张改为不变</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">,这点在不少国家的央行报告中都有体现。就拿周二澳洲联储的利率决议为例,同样将劳动市场的描述从强势改为稳定,并提到失业率可能上升。由此可见,全球经济已经在整体放缓。其次,报告中着重提到了住房地产市场的疲软。受到加息影响,</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">住房贷款需求下滑,即便租金仍在上涨,房价却已经开始受到压力。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">价格的压力同样出现在生活成本上,消费习惯从非必须向必须消费转移,大宗商品与建材价格下滑,但食品、水电、医疗等必须消费价格仍在快速增长。整体来看,经济增长疲软,衰退预期正在按计划蔓延,然而对通胀的控制还只是片面的,并没有形成螺旋下滑。</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">由此释放的信号是,央行还得继续加息。</span></b></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202209/08/152331bezqoq6l87lozo6r.jpg<br></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;">&nbsp;</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">市场中不少人也是这么想的,不仅美联储官员判断年内将加息至</span>4%,昨晚华尔街日报也发文推测9月份将加息7</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">5</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">基点。加息衰退的恐慌情绪主宰整个资产市场。从散户投资者情绪指标来看,</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">超过</span>5</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">0</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">%的投资者正在做空美国股票,这个比例正处在快速上升阶段,也导致全球股市持续下滑。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">不过交易者需要注意,在股市历史中,每当做空情绪超过</span>5</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">0</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">%之后都在两个月内快速回落,同时伴随股市的触底反弹。2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">009</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">年</span>3月、2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">010</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">年</span>7月、2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">013</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">年</span>4月、2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">018</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">年</span>1</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">月以及</span>2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">020</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">年</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">5</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">月都是最好的例子。因此投资者需要时刻关注</span>“股市崩溃”的长线入场机会,不管是定投还是波段,都将有更大的盈利空间。</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202209/08/152348jly9z1kg06100t0c.jpg<br></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;">&nbsp;</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">NAS</span></i><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">100</span></i><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">日线图</span></i><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></i></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">从纳指日线图来看,</span>1</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">00</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">均线稳定向下,价格呈现空头局势,现价还在前低点支撑线</span>1</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">1000</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">大关上方往复震荡。从一目均衡图来看,</span>K线跌破上升云,快慢线形成死叉,价格已经出现在迟行线下方,释放强力空头信号。单从技术面来看,如果想要达到美联储摧毁资本信心的目的,最好的信号便是纳指跌破前低点支撑,陷入技术性熊市。考虑到消息面整体利空,交易策略应该采用逢高做空为主,入场点位可以参考供给区1</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">2600</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">-</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">12800</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">区间,该位置同时受到头部颈线与趋势线压力。下方的第一支撑在</span>1</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">1650</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">附近,再下方则要看</span>1</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">1000</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">大关。上方阻力则是</span>1</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">3000</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">的前高点压力位,一旦向上突破便不再适合做空。</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;">&nbsp;</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">今日关注数据</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></b></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">20</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">:</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">15 </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">欧洲央行公布利率决议</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">0</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">:</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">30 </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">美国当周初请失业金人数</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">0</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">:</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">45 </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">欧洲央行行长拉加德召开发布会</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">1</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">:</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">10 </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">美联储主席鲍威尔参加政策会议</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">:</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">30 </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">美国当周</span>EIA天然气与原油库存</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;">&nbsp;</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">联系我们</span></b><span style="font-family: Arial;">                    </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-family: "Segoe UI";"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">电话:</span>167 4049 5509(中国)</span><span style="font-family: Arial;">                    </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-family: "Segoe UI";"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: Arial;">              </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">1300 729 171(澳大利亚)</span><span style="font-family: Arial;">                    </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-family: "Segoe UI";"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">QQ: 8008 83691 </span><span style="font-family: Arial;">                   </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-family: "Segoe UI";"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">微信:</span>acyau2011</span><span style="font-family: Arial;">                    </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-family: "Segoe UI";"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">官网:</span><span class="15" style="font-family: 微软雅黑; color: rgb(0, 0, 255);">https://www.acy.com.au</span><span style="font-family: Arial;">                    </span><span style="font-family: 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UI";">     </span><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202209/08/152407dj03j0hcc5see2ce.jpg<br><span style="font-family: "Segoe UI";">           &nbsp;</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: Arial;">                    </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-family: "Segoe UI";"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">免责声明:</span></b><span style="font-family: Arial;">                    </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">&nbsp;</span><span style="font-family: "Segoe UI";"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;">本文内容由第三方提供。</span>ACY证券对文中内容的准确性和完整性,不做任何声明或保证;由第三方的建议,预测或其他信息导致了投资损失,ACY证券不承担任何责任。本文内容不构成任何投资建议,与个人投资目标,财务状况或需求无关。如有任何疑问,请您咨询独立专业的财务或税务的意见。ACY Securities Pty Ltd(AFSL 403863)受澳大利亚证券投资委员会授权和监管。</span></span><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑; font-size: 11pt;"></span></i></p>
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