【ACY证券】欧洲决议提前消耗股市动能，通胀预期击穿地表仍未见底
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">美国近期顽强的经济表现令不少人开始相信美联储的</span></span>“软着陆”论调，与之相反，市场并不相信欧洲对控制通胀的坚决立场。然而就在上周四，欧洲央行顶住压力宣布加息7</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">5</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">基点，无疑打了不少人的脸。欧元突破美元回落，令资产价格全面反弹。</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">不过从大方向上来看，欧美的下降趋势并没有被打破。对欧洲经济的看衰以及对美国通胀的看涨仍然是市场的主流观点（利率掉期市场的概率分布）。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">在没有扭转情绪的消息面出现之前，还是以美元看涨资产看跌为主。最近值得关注的扭转点分别是本周二的美国通胀以及下周四的美联储利率决议。因此在周一以及周二早盘期间，应该以高位看跌镑美与美国股市为主（外汇市场中，英镑与日元近期最弱；股票市场中，罗素与费城半导体最弱）。</span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202209/13/154619xroxieglxi4f2x4x.jpg<br></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;"><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">美国</span></span>5年期盈亏平衡通胀率</span></i><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></i></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">在观察市场对通胀预期时，我们通常会采用美国的盈亏平衡通胀率。从</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">5</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">年期盈亏平衡通胀率来看，自</span></span>3月底，美国开始加息以来，预期通胀率便持续下滑，从3</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">.6</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">%的高位跌到目前的2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">.5</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">%。</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">要知道，美国在</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">08</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">年金融危机后的平均通胀在</span></span>2%以下，目前的预期还有很大的下调空间。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">线图形态上与金属铝的价格非常相似。这说明通胀预期的回调，已经反映在大宗商品的期货市场当中。与此同时，通胀预期下降，实际利率上升，将持续对资产价格施压。以目前的趋势来看，资产的价格还没有见底。</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">随着通胀预期继续下滑，股债市场的价格仍会继续下跌，未来可能跌破前低点支撑。</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></b></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202209/13/154624y2uz8ojaq6eova6e.jpg<br></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;"><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">US</span></i><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">2000</span></i><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">四小时图</span></i><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></i></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">从罗素</span></span>2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">00</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">0指数四小时图来看，且不说消息面是否提供动能，单从形态上来看，目前价格已经反弹至关键阻力位置。1</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">900</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">大关不仅是反转头部颈线，也是双重斐波那契与</span></span>2<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">00</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">均线的共同阻力结构，技术面压力非常强势。</span></span>1<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">875</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">-</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">1900</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">区间也是跌平跌中继形态，箱体结构同样会提供上沿阻力。与此同时，欧洲消息面的利多短时间内无法提供充足的上行动能，虽然目前指标还没有形成背离，但已经释放小幅反转的信号。随机指标在超买区形成死叉，</span></span>MACD快慢线保持开口在零线上方还未收敛，整体来看动能不明，方向未定。<b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">因此交易策略应该等待右侧信号顺势入场空单，配合随机指标与</span></span>MACD的双死叉策略会有更好的表现。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">等待</span></span>MACD形成死叉的同时，随机指标保持开口回归中心区域便是不错的做空信号。从一小时级别来看，双死叉形态成型，日内已经有顺势入场空单的机会。消息面可以配合英国GDP与欧洲经济景气数据。现价下方的第一支撑位置在1<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">835</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">的涨平涨中继形态上沿。再下方则要看</span></span>1<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">800</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">的整数位大关。上方阻力在</span></span>1<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">910</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">附近。</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: 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