【ACY证券】一文看懂俄欧制裁对汇市的影响
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">自打俄乌开战后，不管是外汇、股票还是债券市场，都绕不开战争的影响。货币政策自不用说，俄罗斯出口受限，全球物价飙升，导致各国纷纷开始政策紧缩。</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">通胀与加息也成为了影响市场的一大要素。随着紧缩力度不断加大，另一大要素也浮出水面，天然气的价格波动直接影响着欧洲乃至全球市场。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">由于欧洲工业对俄气非常依赖，双方的相互制裁导致欧洲天然气价格单边大涨，欧洲的经济也随之身处悬崖的边缘。</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202209/13/155451opxx8ivppo8lx68o.jpg<br></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">要理解天然气对全球市场的影响，可以对比欧洲天然气价格与美元的行情变化。（美元指数有近</span></span>6</span></span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">0</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">权重放在欧元）。由图可见，</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">欧气和美元在过去一个季度中普遍呈现同涨同跌的现象。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">每当出现供应下降的消息，欧气价格大涨，触发市场对欧洲经济的担忧，欧元随之下滑导致美元大幅反弹。而美元的反弹又带动了全球股市的回调。</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">犹如多米诺骨牌，牵一发而动全身。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">不过欧气涨跌无法完全解释美元指数的波动，因为市场的另一大要素加息预期也在发力。</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202209/13/155502jvyiqbyvfhdneuwz.jpg<br></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">从芝加哥交易所掉期市场的加息预期变化来看，从</span></span>6月1</span></span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">4</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">日到</span></span>8月2<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">4</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">日这段时间，加息中位数始终保持在</span></span>1<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">4</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">码，也就是年底加息至</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">3.75</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">%。不过在此期间，加息预期在7月1</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">3</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">日发布</span></span>9<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">.1</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">%通胀前后出现巨大波动。美元也随预期大涨大跌，这恰好对应了美元与欧气价格背离的时间段。而在8月2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">6</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">日后，预期中位数飙升至</span></span>1<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">5</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">码（加息至</span></span>4%），为美元再添突破动能，这也正是欧气大跌背离之时。<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">整体来看，目前驱动美元升值的主要动力是欧洲天然气价格的暴涨，或者说是市场对欧洲经济的看衰。反而市场经常争论的加息问题，对美元的上行推动力正在被逐步瓦解。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">美元对加息预期的凹性提高，汇率波动跌多涨少。由此可见，如果没有欧洲天然气的影响，美元长线很可能已经见顶回落。考虑到近期的消息面频出，比如中俄签署天然气协议，俄罗斯从哈尔科夫撤军，美国液化天然气出口额上升等等，虽然短线欧元升值动能强劲，但中线的方向依旧难以判断。只要俄乌战争没有停止，欧洲经济与欧元便时刻承受着下行的压力。</span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202209/13/155509mhiskrs2wsw4vvrp.jpg<br></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">AUDUSD日线图</span></i><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></i></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">在西方国家中，澳洲的经济表现得相对坚韧。由于是自然资源大国，澳洲的通胀并没有受到很大的外部冲击。因此长线来看，澳元将有更好的表现空间。从澳美日线图来看，澳美还没有摆脱下行的趋势。欧元下跌带动美元升值，触发澳美下滑。不过对比欧美与美日，澳美并没有跌破前低点</span></span>0</span></span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">.668</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">支撑，该位置也是长线关键水平线。</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">中短线交易策略应该以等待回调后逢低做多为主，属于左侧交易相应扩大盈亏比。需要关注</span></span>0</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">.668</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">-</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">0.68</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">双重需求区域的低接机会。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">短线来看，考虑到今晚的通胀与下周的利率决议。如果通胀下滑，澳美很可能出现一周内大涨大跌的行情，可以顺着美元消息面做高抛低吸。长线交易者则需要耐心等待澳美的底部呈现，如果汇率能够回到</span></span>0<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">.7</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">之上，同时突破下降趋势线与底部颈线封锁，便是回调后看涨的时机。</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">今日关注数据</span></span> </span></b></span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></b></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">17</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">:</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">00 </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">欧元区</span></span>9月经济景气指数</span></span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">0</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">:</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">30 </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">美国</span></span>8月季调后CPI月率</span></span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">1</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">:</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">00 </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">OPEC公布原油市场月度报告</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">联系我们</span></b><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><span 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