( 图片来源：《澳华财经在线》)
Author : David Niu
Based on the situation observed on 5th Aug 2024 Monday, the global markets appear to be pricing in the possibility that the U.S. economy might not achieve a soft landing and may even enter a recession.
Some media outlets have reported that the sharp decline in the stock markets could be related to traders betting that the Federal Reserve might start cutting interest rates within the next two weeks.
Regarding the future trajectory of the stock markets, the potential confusion or market divergence lies in whether the recent sharp drop inmajor indices is a normal correction after reaching new highs or signifies the end of this super upward cycle since the pandemic.
Using the Nasdaq index as an example, the post-pandemic upward cycle might be divided into several phases:
Phase One: From March 2020 to December 2021, an upward movement lasting 21 months. If this rise is considered Wave 1, the subsequent decline from January to October 2022 can be seen as Wave 2 ( 10-month correction).
Phase Two: From the end of October 2022 to the present, the upward movement lasting 22 months should be considered Wave 3. In terms of time, it has met the criteria, but the extent has not reached the level of Wave 1 from March 2020 to December 2021. This discrepancy in wave pattern and extent is the source of confusion.
A puzzle facing us in the near term is whether there might be a possibility of a sharp reversal upwards after this rapid drop, thus perfectly concluding the 3-wave rise from October 2022 to the present, followed by a Wave 4 correction?
Written by David Niu / ACB News (www.acbnews.com.au) on 5th Aug 2024
Disclaimer:
The information provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. The views and opinions expressed are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any agency or organization. Market conditions and financial instruments can change rapidly and unpredictably, and any investment decisions should be made based on thorough research and consultation with a qualified financial advisor. The author assumes no responsibility for any financial decisions made based on the information provided in this publication.
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